Hurricane Beryl Threatens US Demand, Crude Oil Price Drop

Crude Oil price fell nearly a percent on Monday. Prices fell to their lowest levels in a week after Hurricane Beryl shut down US refineries and ports in the Gulf of Mexico and on hopes that a possible ceasefire in the Gaza Strip could ease concerns about global crude supply disruptions.

Hurricane Beryl lashed Texas with strong winds and heavy rain as it churned inland. Oil ports closed, hundreds of flights were canceled and nearly 2 million homes and businesses lost power. Texas produces the most oil and natural gas of any U.S. state.

In the Middle East, talks over a U.S. ceasefire plan to end the nine-month-old war in Gaza are under way and being mediated by Qatar and Egypt.

If anything concrete comes from the ceasefire talks, it will remove some of geopolitical bid from the market for now, said IG analyst Tony Sycamore.

Elsewhere, investors were watching for how elections in the UK, France and Iran over the past week would affect geopolitics and energy policies.

The French left said it wanted to run the government but conceded talks would be tough and take time, after Sunday’s election thwarted the far right’s quest for power and delivered a hung parliament.

In the U.S., President Joe Biden said he would not abandon his reelection campaign as he sought to stave off a possible revolt from fellow Democrats who worry the party could lose the White House and Congress in the Nov. 5 U.S. election.

In India, the world’s third biggest oil consumer, fuel consumption rose by 2.6% year-on-year to 19.99 million metric tons in June from a year earlier.In Germany, exports fell more than expected in May due to weak demand from China, the U.S. and European countries.

In Kazakhstan, the energy ministry said it will compensate for oil output exceeding its OPEC+ quota in the first half of this year by September 2025.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) along with its allies, a group known as OPEC+, has already extended most of its oil output cuts into 2025. Those output cuts have led analysts to forecast supply deficits in the third quarter as transportation and demand for air-conditioning during the summer eat into fuel stockpiles.

Technical Outlook : Crude Oil Price

Crude oil prices paused the recent rally and retreated nearly 2% since Friday. Yesterday, prices touched a low 6861 and settled at 6890 compared to previous day’s close of 6977.00

On the above chart, prices trading near to previous supply zone. RSI and 9 SMA is giving a negative cross over. Hence, a break below 6830 prices could retreat towards 6750-6680.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 6960 above it prices may gain towards 7050 again.

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar
Learn and Trade with Ease

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