Dollar had a neutral trade last week. After hitting a weekly high 102.2310 settled at 101.7240, up 0.14%. Gold prices retreated by 0.80%, it slipped from the high of 60689 and settled at 59845. Silver posted 1.35% weekly fall. After hitting a weekly low of 73905, it settled at 74654.
From the base metal front, Copper prices gave up its three week gains. Prices retreated more than 4% and settled at 757.25 as compared to previous week’s close of 789.30. Zinc and lead dropped by 4.35%, 0.87% respectively, while, Aluminum was able to settle slightly positive by 0.76%.
Crude oil plunged more than 5.45% and settled at 6398, dropped from the weekly high 6770. Natural gas was able to gain 5.90%, settling at 183.10 compared to previous week’s close of 172.90.
Important Economic Data and Events
U.S.
Thursday – Will be an important day for the dollar and Bullion prices. As first quarter GDP will be released, the forecast is to have a contraction by 2.0% from 2.6% in the previous quarter.
On the same day, Unemployment Claims also set to be released. Data is foreseen at 249k slightly higher from previous week 245K.
Both data could have a negative impact on the dollar.
On Friday, the Fed’s favored measure of inflation, the core PCE price index and the employment cost index, are due to be released. Both data will have a significant impact on dollar and bullions prices.
Core PCE expects to come unchanged at 0.3%, while the Employment Cost Index q/q expects to stay slightly higher at 1.1% from previous 1.0%.
Euro zone
Friday – The Euro zone is to release advance data on first quarter GDP and April inflation reports from the region’s largest economies Germany, France and Spain.
GDP data expect to come at 0.2% slightly higher from 0.0. Spain, Germany, Italy are expected to come favorable for Euro and bullions prices.
Further, German Inflation expects to come at 0.6% lower from 0.8% previous.
The strong performance in the Euro zone’s dominant services sector could mean that wage pressures remain elevated, hampering the European Central Bank’s efforts to return inflation back to its 2% target.
The ECB is expected to raise interest rates for a seventh straight meeting at its upcoming May meeting, with most analysts expecting a 25-basis point hike, although a larger increase has not been ruled out.
Japan
Monday, Bank of Japan will publish Core CPI numbers on a yoy basis. Data foreseen at 2.6% slightly lower from previous 2.7%.
On Friday, Tokyo Core CPI y/y will be released. Data foreseen at 3.2% unchanged from previous 3.2%.
On the same day, the Market will react strongly to the Bank of Japan Policy meeting. As it will be the first policy meeting of new Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda chairs. Market is not expecting any changes to the central bank’s ultra-dovish monetary policy; they are on the alert for any potential surprises.
Ueda is under intense scrutiny over how he might steer the BOJ away from the massive stimulus program in place over the last decade without posing risks to market stability.
Japanese inflation is outstripping estimates but comments by Ueda in recent weeks indicate he believes stimulus settings remain appropriate for now.