As per our outlook given on 10 February 2023 proven accurate. GOLD prices dropped towards recent low 56083. Hit both predicted downside level 56400-56280 cmp 56188. Bullion depressed after US CPI data released yesterday. Now, major action is expect to come after Retail sales data, due to come later today.
Gold prices fall from the high 56999 on Wednesday as mixed data for January. Currently it is trading at 56380 down by 0.65%. Yesterday, CPI was bringing some fear over the U.S. economy and the path of Fed policy. On the other hand, dollar reacted slightly positive and gained 0.30% since then.
Gold prices fell towards near one month lows after data showed year on year U.S. CPI stood at less than expected in January. On a monthly basis, CPI accelerated in January from the prior month.
Now the focus shifted on the economic data from the U.S. Some among them, Retail Sales data may bring clutter for the bullions prices. Throw fresh light on consumer spending, eventually offering cues on the economic and inflation outlook. The United States Retail Sales are expected to rebound to 1.9% MoM in January as compared to previous month reading-1.1% while the Core Retail Sales are also likely to come favorable at 0.9% as compared to the previous reading of -1.1%.
A strong consumer demand is likely to ramp up higher inflation expectations. Which also boosts the prospect of the US Federal Reserve continuing with its policy tightening. On Tuesday, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that hot US inflation will keep the Fed on track for further rate increases. New York Fed President John Williams and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker also shared a somewhat hawkish view on the future policy path.
Technical – GOLD breached its crucial support
As per our outlook given on 10 February 2023 proven accurate. GOLD prices dropped towards recent low 56083. Hit both predicted levels 56400-56280 cmp 56188.
GOLD future has continued in a downward trend, since 2 Feb 2023. Today trading at 56397 levels down by 0.54%.
Yesterday, Gold Future retreated from the day’s high 56999 and settled at 556750. Since 7 February 2023, GOLD Future has been trading below its massive resistance of 57385. Adding to this, GOLD prices are following a downward consolidation pattern, which indicates bearish momentum in near future.
Adding to this, GOLD Future is trading below 100 SMA which also signals bearish momentum.
Following the above technical aspects, its expect that bearish momentum GOLD is expect to continue and prices may test 56000-55850 very soon.
Alternatively, on the upside massive resistance is seen at 57100 and 57385 on a closing basis and a break above only will open the door for an upside level of 57650-57850.
Today, US economic indicators will give cues for the FED rate. If the data will come according to the forecast then GOLD Future could show speculative moves later today. Keep it in mind.