U.S. economic data remain in focus amid expectations that the Federal Reserve would proceed cautiously with interest-rate cuts given the pickup in U.S. inflation in October and the prospect of President-elect Donald Trump’s policies adding to price pressures. This week Focus Will on Global PMI, UK CPI, Retail sales data
This week Focus Will on Global PMI, UK CPI, Retail sales data
U.S.
The week’s U.S. data releases include weekly jobless claims (forecast 220k from previous 217k) and existing home sales (forecast 3.94M from previous 3.84M) on Thursday.
On Friday, flash estimate of purchasing managers’ surveys (previous 48.5 and the University of Michigan’s final consumer survey are due, forecast is at 72.1 from previous 73).
The U.S. Treasury will auction $16 billion in 20-year bonds on Wednesday and $17 billion in 10-year notes on Thursday.
Canada
In Canada, the main focus will be on the October inflation data due Tuesday. Inflation fell to an annual rate of 1.6% in September from 2.0% the previous month, the lowest since February 2021 and below the Bank of Canada’s 2% target.
Last month, the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 3.75% and said it expects to cut rates further as it sees inflation remaining close to its target over the projection horizon.
Further, Canada Retail sales data on Friday will be another important data for the week. The data is foreseen at -0.5% from previous -0.7%. Both data will impact on the Canadian dollar.
Eurozone
This week, Eurozone balance of payments for September (forecast 27.0B from previous 31.5B) and final CPI data for October on Tuesday will in Focus (forecast 2.7% from previous 2.7%).
Flash estimates of French (forecast 44.6 from previous 44.5), German (forecast 43.1 from pervious 43) and eurozone purchasing manager indices (forecast 46 from previous 45) on Friday are the key indicators to watch. That could weight on the Euro.
U.K.
U.K. inflation data is set to be released on Wednesday. In the last reading, annual headline inflation for September stood at 1.7%. Forecast is 2.2%.
The U.K. retail sales data for October is set to be released on Friday. The data is foreseen at -0.3% from previous 0.3%.
Meanwhile, UK Flash manufacturing PMI data (foreseen 50.1 from previous 49.90) and Flash Service PMI data (foreseen at 52.3 from previous 52) could weight on the pound.
CHINA
It is a relatively quiet week for China after a flurry of data showed signs of gradual improvement.
China’s biggest banks are expected to hold their loan prime rates–the country’s benchmark lending rates that guide mortgage–steady on Wednesday at 3.10% and 3.60%, following a steep cut to borrowing costs last month.
Economists have low expectations for further monetary support after a wave of easing.
All eyes are on December’s Central Economic Work Conference for policy priorities, with potential surprise announcements, though Beijing’s fiscal moves are expected to remain cautious.
JAPAN
BOJ Governor Ueda speaks Monday in Nagoya, with investors eyeing hints on rate hikes as the yen’s sharp drop raises inflation risks. Economists see a hike in December or January.
Further, the BOJ governor will also attend a forum in Tokyo on Thursday, with Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau.
Japan’s October CPI, due Friday, is expected to show energy subsidies easing price pressures. Core CPI (ex-fresh food) likely rose 2.2% YoY, down from 2.4% in September, per market forecast.
Machinery orders for September due Monday and trade statistics for October due Wednesday will also give some clues on the strength of the manufacturing sector.
Until then, Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities
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