This week could be pivotal for markets, as the future trajectory of U.S. interest rates may gain clarity with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech at the annual Jackson Hole retreat. Powell’s remarks could set the tone for monetary policy, influencing everything from bond yields to global capital flows. Meanwhile, the Democratic National Convention kicks off, adding a layer of political uncertainty to the mix. Global PMI, FOMC Meeting Minutes will in Focus this week
Global PMI data, a critical indicator of economic health, will provide fresh insights into the strength and resilience of economies worldwide. These numbers could either reinforce the narrative of a slowing global economy or suggest a more resilient outlook, with significant implications for investment strategies.
The combination of these factors creates a complex and uncertain landscape for the week ahead, with potential market-moving events on multiple fronts. Market should brace for heightened volatility and be prepared for rapid shifts in sentiment as these developments unfold.
The key data and events for this week. Global PMI, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Tuesday – China Prime Rate Decision and Canada CPI
- The economic calendar will start with 1-y Loan Prime Rate Prime Rate decision of China. The rate expected to hold unchanged at 3.35%. 5-y Loan Prime Rate expected to unchanged at 3.85%.
- Canada CPI number will be second important indicator to watch. The number is foreseen to expand by 0.4% from previous contraction of 0.1% That could have a positive impact on the dollar.
Wednesday – US FED Minutes
- On Wednesday, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve as it releases the meticulously scrutinized minutes from its July meeting. The implications of these minutes are immense, especially given that the Fed hinted at a potential rate cut in September, with Chair Jerome Powell cautiously recognizing strides in taming inflation.
Thursday – Global PMI, US weekly jobless claims
- French Flash Manufacturing PMI will be closely watched. The reading is expected to higher 44.2 compared to the previous 44.00. While, German Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to 43.40 compared to 43.20.
- Meanwhile, UK Flash Manufacturing PMI will take attention during the day. The data is expected to be neutral compared to previous 52.10.
- US Unemployment is said to be the next release of the day. The data is expected to increase by 233k compared to the previous week 227k. This could have a negative effect on the value of the dollar.
- US PMI will set to release on the same day. The data is forecasted to increase by 49.8 compare to previous 46.6. That could have a stabilized impact on the dollar.
Friday – Canada Retail sales
- Core Retail Sales m/m will be important data to watch the data is expected to decrease by -0.4% compare to -1.3%. While, Retail Sales m/m foreseen in contraction figure 0.3% from previous contraction of 0.8%. That could weight on the base metals.
Jackson Hole:
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell and BOE Gov Bailey Speaks will deliver a highly anticipated keynote at the annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Markets are intensely focused on his signals regarding the timing and pace of potential rate cuts.
Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar
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