Economic Outlook: Will the US Economic Data This week Create Waves?

Economic Outlook: Will the US Economic Data This week Create Waves?

The economic outlook for the week is in.

This week could be remarkably quiet, affected not only by limited indicators but also by the weakening of liquidity ahead of the long Easter weekend. The main event of the week is the US Core PCE data (the Fed’s primary inflation gauge), but as it is released on Good Friday, the response to this release may be neutral.

Important events and data for the week – Economic Outlook Looking Good?

Tuesday – US CB Consumer Confidence

US durable goods orders for February will be released at 7:30 p.m. The data is expected to improve from a 6.1% decline to 1.2% in January-February, and orders for durable goods are also expected to rise 0.4% from March’s 0.4% decline.

However, US consumer confidence will be released in the day of march. Expectations show consumer confidence falling slightly to 106.9 from 106.7 in February. Both figures could have a slightly negative impact on the dollar.

Wednesday –Australia CPI

The monthly Australian Consumer Price Index is released on Wednesday. Economists estimate that inflation will accelerate slightly to 3.5% in February, compared to 3.4% last month

Fed officials also include Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and Fed Chairs Lisa Cook and Christopher Waller. will appear within the week.

Thursday – US GDP

On Thursday, US GDP growth data for the last quarter of 2023 will attract attention. Based on another estimate, GDP grew to 3.2 percent per year, compared to the previous one.

Unemployment benefits are also due to the release, predicted to be 214,000 compared to the previous 210,000. The data could be neutral on the dollar.

Friday- Tokyo Inflation, US Core PCE data

The Economic Outlook for Friday looks promising.

In Japan, Tokyo is to release inflation figures. The data is forecast to have a moderate decrease by 2.4% from previous 2.5%, but they may be greeted with less excitement after the Bank of Japan finally hiked interest rates for the first time in 17 years last week. 

Further, Unemployment Rate will expect to remain unchanged at 2.4%, while Prelim Industrial Production m/m if forecast to have a expansion of 1.2% after an contraction of 6.7% in last month.

The data might have a positive impact on the Yen.

The highlight of the week is the US Core PCE data (the Fed’s primary inflation gauge), the data will be published on Good Friday, the reaction to this release may be neutral. The market forecast is a moderate 0.3% in February compared to 0.4% in January

On the same day as Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s speech, which could have a volatile effect on the dollar.

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