The Economic Outlook for the day is out and all eyes are firmly placed on the plethora of US data incoming.
The dollar rose to a three-month high against the majors as traders bet on a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve following surprisingly warm inflation numbers.
As per the economic outlook, the greenback strengthened against the British pound, rising 0.35% to $1.2548, briefly hitting an eight-day high after data showed Britain’s inflation did not pick up as expected in January. This could ease pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to keep interest rates where they are for longer.
UK annual inflation was 4.0% in January, the same as in December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 4.2 percent growth.
Gold remained under pressure, trading near two-month lows on Thursday, as traders assessed US Federal Reserve officials mixed comments on January and warmer-than-expected inflation data prompted a retreat from hopes for an early and deeper rate cut.
Copper retreated from intraday highs on Wednesday as speculators increased selling of US inflation data, raising concerns that a cut in high interest rates could be delayed.
Crude oil retreated from the day’s high and fell sharply lower, with prices rebounding from two-week highs after weekly EIA crude inventories rose more than expected. Prices initially rose due to a weakened dollar and geopolitical risks in the Middle East following the war in Gaza and continued attacks by Houthi fighters on cargo ships operating in the Red Sea.
Crude prices had lost over $1 each on Wednesday after data showed U.S. oil inventories grew a staggering 12 million barrels in the week to February 9, much higher than expectations for a build of 3.3 million barrels.
The economic outlook provided suggests that the reading was driven chiefly by record-high U.S. production, indicating that the world’s largest fuel consumer remained well-supplied with oil.
MCX gold futures settled -0.10% to 61443. Silver settled +0.74% at 70152. Copper settled -0.25% to 705.95. Crude oil -1.43% at 6397. Natural gas -3.15% to 141.30.
Economic data and events scheduled today – Will the Economic Outlook Depend on US Data?
Japan
At 5.20am –
Prelim GDP Price Index y/y. Data is foreseen at 4.0% from previous 5.3%.
Prelim GDP q/q. Data is foreseen 0.2% from previous -0.7%.
At 10.00am- Revised Industrial Production m/m. Data is foreseen at 1.8% from previous 1.8%.
Above data could have a volatile impact on the Yen.
Eurozone
At 3.30pm-
Flash Employment Change q/q. Data is foreseen at 0.3% from previous at 0.2%.
Flash GDP q/q. Data is foreseen at 0.0% from previous 0.0%.
Industrial Production m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.2% from previous -0.3%.
Tentative – German 30-y Bond Auction.
At 8.30pm- German Buba President Nagel Speaks.
Above data could have a mixed impact on the Euro.
UK
At 12.30pm-
GDP m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.2% from previous 0.3%.
Prelim GDP q/q. Data is foreseen at -0.1% from previous -0.1%.
Construction Output m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.1% from previous -0.2%.
Index of Services 3m/3m. Data is foreseen at 0.1% from previous 0.0%.
Industrial Production m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.1% from previous 0.3%.
Manufacturing Production m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.1% from previous 0.4%.
Prelim Business Investment q/q. Data is foreseen at -0.1% from previous -3.2%.
At 6.30pm- MPC Member Greene Speaks.
Tentative – NIESR GDP Estimate. Data is foreseen at m- 0.0% from previous 0.0%.
At 7.20pm- MPC Member Mann Speaks.
Above data could have a volatile impact on the Pound.
Canada
At 6.45pm- Housing Starts. Data is foreseen at 236K from previous 249K.
At 7.00pm- Manufacturing Sales m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.5% from previous 1.2%.
Above data could have a positive impact on the Canadian dollar.
US
At 7.00pm-
Core Retail Sales m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.2% from previous 0.4%.
Empire State Manufacturing Index. Data is foreseen at -13.7 from previous -43.7.
Retail Sales m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.2% from previous 0.3%.
Unemployment Claims. Data is foreseen at 219k from previous 218k.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Data is foreseen at -8.0 from previous -10.6.
At 7.45pm-
Industrial Production m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.2% from previous 0.1%.
Capacity Utilization Rate. Data is foreseen at 78.8% from previous 78.6%.
At 8.30pm-
Business Inventories m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.4% from previous -0.1%.
NAHB Housing Market Index. Data is foreseen at 46 from previous 44.00.
9.00pm- Natural Gas Storage. Foreseen at -67B from previous -75B.
Above data could have a volatile impact on the dollar
Commodity Samachar
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