Economic Data: Unpredictable Week Ahead with US and UK CPI?

The Economic Data this week will involve the market facing off with the US and UK CPI.

The most anticipated data of the week are, of course, the US and UK inflation indicators. as investors try to time the Bank of England’s first interest rate cut. Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) reports are very important to investors.

The market watchers will also hear from several Fed officials during the week, including Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Which could attract volatility against the dollar.

Economic Data This Week: The market faces US and UK CPI numbers volatility

Monday – Fed members and UK government speech

The weekly economic data begins with the economic calendar involving US FOMC member Barkin and BOE board member Bailey. This could have a destabilizing effect on the dollar and sterling.

Tuesday – US Inflation figures

Markets react strongly to US inflation figures. Recent strong jobs and economic growth data have dampened some predictions about the timing of Fed rate hikes. So the data are clues to the Fed’s decision.

Any signs that price pressures are intensifying could push rate cut bets further into the future. A higher-than-expected CPI could topple the stock market’s epic rally.

Economists expect consumer prices to rise by 0.2% to 0.3% compared to last month, as core inflation for the year is forecast at 2.9% compared to 3.4% a year earlier.

The annuals published on February 9 were fortunately insignificant. The market had little effect on expectations about the timing of Fedand#039’s initial rates, so the market quickly shifted its focus to emphasize the significance of the events that took place.

In addition, UK job numbers can cause some volatility. Markets see the change in claimants rising from 11.7K to 15.2K, while the average income index of 3 million a year is forecast at 5.6%, slightly down from 6.5%, but this could still be too high BoE: for my taste. Both numbers can have opposite effects on the pound.

Wednesday – UK Inflation

Market will react strongly on CPI data. Which could further complicate the Bank of England monetary policy outlook. Economists expect the consumer price index to increase by 4.1%, compared to a 4.0%  in the previous year.

 The BoE reckons inflation will return to its 2% target this year but has warned it could rise again in the third quarter.

On the same day, BOE Gov Bailey Speaks may drag some volatility for the Pound.

From the domestic front, India WPI inflation is set to release. The data is foreseen at 0.53% from previous 0.73% which could have a negative impact on the Indian Rupees.

Thursday -UK GDP

In the Japanese calendar the flash Q4 GDP Growth Rate is set to release. The data is foreseen at 4.0% lower from previous 5.3%, while Prelim GDP q/q expect to expand by 0.3% compared to contraction of 0.7%. the Numbers will have a strong impact on the Japanese currency.

On Thursday GDP data will illustrate how elevated interest rates are continuing to impact the economy, which stagnated in the second half of last year.

The numbers is forecast to have a contraction of 0.2% compared to growth of 0.3% in last month. The numbers will give a clutter for the pound.

Adding to this, some other macroeconomic data Construction Output m/m, Goods Trade Balance and Industrial Production m/m due to release at same time.

In addition, US unemployment claims will be published on the same day, the data is expected to be 217K from 218K before, which could have a neutral effect on the dollar.

Further, Core Retail Sales m/m and Retail Sales m/m likely to attract attention from the US side. The Core Retail Sales m/m numbers is foreseen at 0.1% from previous 0.4%, and Retail Sales m/m is forecast to have a contraction of 0.2% from expansion of 0.6%. Both numbers could have a negative impact on the Dollar.

Friday- US PCE Report.

UK Retail Sales m/m numbers are set to release, with forecast of an expansion of 1.5% compared to contraction of 3.2%, that could have a positive impact on the pound.

Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) reports hold immense significance for investors. The Core PPI m/m Numbers is foreseen at 0.1% from previous 0.0%, and PPI m/m numbers expected to increase by 0.1% compared to contraction of 0.1%. Both numbers could have a strong impact on the dollar and for the market.

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment foreseen at 79.9 higher from previous 79.00.  Adding to this, Building Permits, Housing Starts, FOMC Member Daly Speaks due to release on the same day.

Commodity Samachar
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Also Read: Economic Data: Canadian Jobs and German Inflation In the Spotlight? , China’s Impact, Rising Inventories-What Lies Ahead For Zinc?

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