It’s a pretty busy week as US PCE economic data should shift volatility and bolster September rate expectations. At the same time, non-euro area PMI data further tightens the path to the European Central Bank’s next interest rate hike. Additionally, the Bank of Canada’s policy meeting is another noteworthy event
The key economic data and events for this week.
Tuesday – US Existing Home sales
- US Existing home Sales data will the important triggers to watch on Tuesday. The number is foreseen at 3.99M compared to 4.11M, that could have a volatile impact on the dollar.
Wednesday – PMI numbers, Canada Policy
- Eurozone PMI data on Wednesday will be closely watched after the central bank kept interest rates on hold at 3.75% last Thursday and resisted offering future guidance, saying it was “data-dependent. Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to increase by 46.00 compared to previous 45. 8. The number could be favorable for the Euro against the dollar.
- French Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to slight increase by 45.7 compared to previous 45.4. French Flash Services PMI at 49.7 compare to previous 49.6.
- German Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to increase by 44.1 compared to previous 43.5, while German Flash Services PMI is expected to increase by 53.3 compared to previous 53.10.
- UK Flash Manufacturing PMI is another data to watch on the day. The number is foreseen at 51.1 compared to previous 50.9, that could weight on pound.
- Bank of Canada announces its monetary policy decision., the policy maker is expected to cut rate by 4.50% from previous 4.75%. That could weight on the dollar.
- US Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI will set to release, both number is expected o moderate higher, that could be favorable impact on the dollar.
Thursday – US GDP, Weekly Unemployment claims
- US first estimate of the US GDP will be released. The number is forecasted at 1.9% compare to 1.4% previously.
- US Unemployment is said to be the next release of the day. The data is expected to decrease by 239,000 compared to the previous week 243,000. This could have a stabilizing effect on the value of the dollar.
Friday – Japan CPI, US PCE
- Japan’s Tokyo CPI data is due to be released. Those trying to figure out how likely a rate hike by the BoJ is this month may pay extra attention as the Tokyo prints are great gauges of the National CPI numbers.
- The number is foreseen at 2.2% slightly higher from the previous 2.1%. As the Bank of Japan is due on July 31, hence the data will give a final clue as to whether a rate hike is likely this month.
- US PCE economic data will be the next release to watch. As the data will anticipate expectations that the Federal Reserve is all but certain to cut interest rates in September. The is expect to increase by 0.2% compare to expansion of 0.1%, that could wait on the sentiment.
- The consumer price index fell in June for the first time in four years. That cooler-than-expected report set off a rotation in equities and cemented market expectations that the Fed is primed to cut rates in September.
Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar
Learn and Trade with Ease
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