Below are several economic data. Out of so many we need to set eyes on FED meet. FOMC statement seems to be the trend decider.
USD: Core Retail Sales m/m at 6:00 PM
Measures: Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles
Released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends
Next Release Date: Jul 15, 2022
Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends
Forecast- [0.7%]
Previous- [0.6%]
Actual- ?
Impact- The forecast figure seems to be slightly positive for base metals and the dollar while negative for bullions. The actual figure is to release at 6:00 PM.
USD: Retail Sales m/m at 6:00 PM
Measures: Change in the total value of sales at the retail level
Released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends
Next Release Date Jul 15, 2022
This is the earliest and broadest look at vital consumer spending data
It’s the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity
Forecast- [0.1%]
Previous- [0.9%]
Actual- ?
Impact- The forecast figure seems to be slightly negative for base metals and the dollar while negative for bullions. The actual figure is to release at 6:00 PM.
USD: Empire State Manufacturing Index at 6:00 PM
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in New York state
Released monthly, around the middle of the current month
Next Release Date: Jul 15, 2022
Above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below means worsening conditions
It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment
Forecast- [2.4]
Previous- [-11.6]
Actual- ?
Impact- The forecast figure seems to be positive for base metals and the dollar while negative for bullions. The actual figure is to release at 6:00 PM.
Crude Oil Inventories at 8:00 PM
Measures: Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week
Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends
Next Release Date: June 23, 2022
While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada’s sizable energy sector
It’s the primary gauge of supply and demand imbalances in the market, which can lead to changes in production levels and price volatility
Forecast- [-2.3M]
Previous- [2.0M]
Actual- ?
Impact- The forecast figure seems to be supportive for Crude Oil The actual figure to release at 8:00 PM
EUR: ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 9:50 PM
Measures: Due to speak at the London School of Economics
ECB President Nov 2019 – Nov 2027. Volatility is often experienced during her speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues
As head of the ECB, which controls short-term interest rates, she has more influence over the euro’s value than any other person. Traders scrutinise her public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy
USD: FOMC Economic Projections at 11:30 PM
Scheduled 4 times per year
Next Release: Sep 21, 2022
This report includes the FOMC’s projection for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years and, more importantly, a breakdown of individual FOMC members’ interest rate forecasts. Source first released in Apr 2011
It’s the primary tool the Fed uses to communicate their economic and monetary projections to investors
USD: FOMC Statement at 11:30 PM
Scheduled 8 times per year
Next Release: Jul 27, 2022
The FOMC usually changes the statement slightly at each release. It’s these changes that traders focus on
It’s the primary tool the FOMC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their vote on interest rates and other policy measures, along with commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their votes. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes
USD: Federal Funds Rate at 11:30 PM
Measures: Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight
Scheduled 8 times per year;
Next Release: Jul 27, 2022
The rate decision is usually priced into the market, so it tends to be overshadowed by the FOMC Statement, which is focused on the future
Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation – traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future
Forecast- [<1.50%]
Previous- [<1.00%]
Actual- ?
Impact- The forecast figure seems to be negative for base metals and the dollar while negative for bullions. The actual figure is to release at 11:30 PM.