Crude oil price is trading in a descending triangle pattern, which usually signals a bearish trend. Prices have been making lower highs, meaning sellers are pushing the market down. However, oil has been holding strong at a major support level between $68-$70. This level has acted as a floor many times before, preventing further drops. But if this level breaks, oil prices could crash toward $64 or even $60. On the other hand, if buyers come in and push oil back above $75, we could see a rally toward $80 or $83.
Technical Analysis of Crude Oil Price – Triangle Breakdown or Reversal?
The descending triangle pattern is a sign that selling pressure is increasing, and buyers are struggling to take control. The support at $68-$70 is key—if it breaks, the next stop is $64. A breakdown with strong volume would confirm the move lower. However, if oil bounces from this level and breaks above the $75 resistance, it could flip bullish and aim for $80-$83 levels. Volume will be important—a breakout or breakdown with high volume will confirm the next big trend.
Fundamental Factors Affecting Crude Oil Price
Crude oil prices are not just driven by charts but also by global news and events. Right now, there are both bullish and bearish factors affecting the market.Bearish Factors (Why Oil Could Fall)
- Weak Global Demand – The U.S. and Germany, two major economies, are slowing down. This means less oil is being used, which is bad for prices.
- China’s Lower Imports – China, the world’s biggest oil buyer, has been cutting back on imports. Less demand from China could drag prices down.
- Triangle Pattern Breakdown – If the $68-$70 support breaks, technical traders will sell aggressively, leading to a steep drop to $64 or lower.
Bullish Factors (Why Oil Could Rise)
- U.S. Ends Venezuela Oil Deal – The U.S. recently canceled a deal with Chevron that allowed them to sell Venezuelan oil. This means less oil supply in the market, which could push prices higher.
- Lower U.S. Oil Stockpiles – The U.S. crude oil reserves are getting lower, meaning there is less oil available. When supply goes down, prices usually go up.
- Support Holding Strong – If buyers defend the $68-$70 zone, oil could bounce back. If it breaks above $75, a rally toward $80-$83 becomes likely.
Conclusion – Oil’s Big Decision Ahead
Crude oil price is at a make-or-break level. If global demand remains weak and support breaks, oil could see a major drop toward $64 or even $60. However, if supply tightens due to Venezuela’s oil cuts and low inventories, we could see a strong bounce from $68-$70, leading to $75, then possibly $80-$83.
Traders should closely watch the $68-$70 support level. A breakdown signals a bearish move, while a bounce could start a strong rally. The next few weeks will be crucial.
Until then, Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets
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