Will US, UK inflation, Retail sales data gives clues this week?

Monday –

The weekly economic calendar will start with a slew of low impacted data releases.

India’s CPI will be released later on Monday, which is forecasted to rise 4.8% YoY in October from 5.02% previous. The markets will be closed on Tuesday on the occasion of Diwali Balipratipada.

Tuesday – US Inflation, UK Job report

The market will react to U.S. consumer price data for October.

The numbers are expected to have increased by 0.1% on a monthly basis compared to September 0.4%, on a surprise surge in rental costs, but also showed a moderation in underlying inflation pressures. Core CPI is foreseen unchanged at 0.3%.YOY reading is foreseen at 3.3% slightly lower from previous 3.7%.

The UK economic docket set to release employment numbers for September could also be important as the average weekly earnings print may provide a glimpse of where inflation may be headed in upcoming months.

 Data is foreseen slightly lower at 15K from previous 20.4K. Which might support the pound.

Wednesday – UK CPI, US Retail sales

 The UK will release inflation data. The numbers are anticipated to have slumped to 4.7% y/y from 6.7%, and the core one to have slid to 5.6% y/y from 6.1%. However, according to the PMIs, prices charged by companies accelerated to a three-month high in October. Thus, in contrast to the US CPI data, there may be upside risks surrounding the UK numbers.

From the Japan economic docket, preliminary GDP for Q3 is due to be released. According to a Reuters poll, the Japanese economy likely shrank during the quarter, marking the first contraction in four quarters. The number is foreseen at 4.8% much higher from previous 3.5% on YoY basis.

Market is believed that the BoJ will phase out its ultra-loose policy next year, but a negative GDP figure could prove a challenge for the Bank’s plans and perhaps prompt traders to push the yen lower.

Further, China will publish Industrial production and Retail sales numbers. Industrial production is foreseen almost unchanged at 3.5%. While, Retail sales numbers foreseen modest improvement by 7.1 % from 5.5%.

The U.S. is also to release producer price data with a forecast of 0.3% unchanged from previous 0.3%.  Core retail sales numbers for October, which are expected to dip into negative territory after a string of solid monthly gains at -0.2% from previous 0.6%. Retail sales expected to be negative by 0.3% from 0.7%.

Thursday – US weekly jobless claims.

 US Jobless Claims data set to release. Forecast is to come at 222k from the previous 217k, that could have a neutral impact on the dollar.

On the same day, FOMC Member Williams Speaks,  FOMC Member Barr Speaks, will have to closely watch.

Friday – UK Retail

UK retail data set to release on Friday. With forecasts of moderate higher by 0.3% compared to contraction of 0.9% that might have a positive impact for the market.

Investors will get a chance to hear   ECB President Lagarde, German Buba President Nagel, MPC Member Ramsden, MPC Member Greene and FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks.

Apart from the scheduled economic data publication, the risk of a federal government shutdown is looming if lawmakers in Washington are unable to pass a measure to at least temporarily fund operations before Friday.