Commodity Market News | Tug of ‘Volatility’: China Eco Data vs. Fed Speech in Focus

Commodity Market News | Tug of 'Volatility': China Eco Data vs. Fed Speech in Focus


The U.S. is to release meaningful Core Retail Sales m/m and Retail Sales m/m data for September. The number will show the strength of consumer spending, which drives around two thirds of the economy.

 The Core Retail Sales m/m is expected to rise by 0.2% in September lower from previous reading 0.6%. while, Retail sales expected to be lower by 0.3% from previous reading 0.6%.

 On the same day, the U.K. is to release its latest employment report which will be the final such reports ahead of the Bank of England upcoming November meeting. The numbers expected at 2.3k much higher from the previous reading of 0.9k.


Market will react to a cluster of economic data out of China on Wednesday. The number will indicate how much additional stimulus Beijing may still need to roll out.

The gross domestic product is foreseen at 4.5%, still below Beijing’s annual growth target of about 5%. Previous was at 6.3%.

Industrial production foreseen 4.3% from 4.5%, retail sales at 5.0% from previous 4.6%.

On the same day, the UK is to publish CPI numbers for September, which will be the final such reports ahead of the Bank of England’s upcoming November meeting. The data is foreseen at 6.6% from the previous 6.7%. That said, it’s still well above the BoE’s 2% target.


The focus will shift on comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell when he addresses the Economic Club of New York.  The Fed members are still in favour of one more rate hike by the end of 2023, indicating higher rates for a longer time to fight inflation. Meanwhile, the US consumer inflation in September came in higher than expected, keeping the US dollar on demand.

Meanwhile, the weekly Jobless Claims report will also be closely watched. Numbers expected at 210k from previous 209k.


The UK will release Retail Sales m/m on Friday, which will be important for market sentiment and for the currency.  The numbers expected to be negative at 0.3% from expansion of 0.4%%, It would have a negative impact on the metals prices as well.

FED Member speech during the week

Several regional Fed presidents are also due to make appearances during the week including Patrick Harker, Thomas Barkin, Neel Kashkari, Loretta Mester and Lorie Logan. Fed Governors Lisa Cook and Christopher Waller are also due to make speeches.

Snaky headlines from the above speech will drag volatility in the market

Geopolitical conflict

The Israeli-Hamas war has sharpened focus on rising geopolitical risk for the entire market. As if the conflict draws in other countries with the potential to drive up oil prices further and deal a fresh blow to the world economy.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed on Sunday to “demolish Hamas” as his military prepared ground operations in Gaza to root out the militant group, whose deadly rampage through Israeli border towns stunned the nation..