China Loan & Fed Rate Decision: Will the market react?

Crude oil continued its speculative move on Tuesday. Prices hitits 10-month highs, as weak U.S. shale output compounded supply concerns from extended production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

U.S. oil output from top shale-producing regions is on track to fall to 9.393 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, the lowest since May 2023, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Monday. That would be a third consecutive monthly fall.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against six major counterparts, was up 0.13% at 105.206, not far from the six-month high of 105.43 touched last week.

Copper prices extended their losses for a third consecutive day as fears over prolonged high interest rates and rising inventories. The three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was down 1% at $8,278 per metric ton.

Bullions traded flat to neutral amid bets that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold this week, while growing fears of a U.S. government shutdown spurred some safe haven demand.

MCX Gold futures settled at 59282 up 0.04%. Silver at 72569 almost flat. Copper prices settled at 727.05.00 down 0.60%. Crude oil settled at 7609 up 0.50%. Natural gas settled at 237.00 up 4.54%

Economic data and events scheduled today


At 6.45am-

1-y Loan Prime Rate. Data is foreseen at 3.45% from 3.45% previous.

5-y Loan Prime Rate. Data is foreseen at 4.20% from 4.20% previous.

Above data could have a neutral impact for Yuan.


At 11.30am-

CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 7.00% from 6.80% previous.

Core CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 6.8% from 6.9% previous.

PPI Input m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.3% from -0.4% previous.

PPI Output m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.1% from 0.1% previous.

At 2.00pm – HPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 0.1% from 1.7% previous.

All above data could have a negative impact on the pound.


At 11.30pm – German PPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.1% from previous -1.1%.

All above data could have a positive impact on the Euro.


At 11.00pm – BOC Summary of Deliberations.


At 8.00pm – Crude Oil Inventories. Foreseen at 0.3M from previous 4.0M.

At 11.30pm –

Federal Funds Rate. Foreseen at 5.50%, unchanged from previous 5.50%.

FOMC Economic Projections.

FOMC Statement

All above data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.