Monday – ISM PMI Data
Weekly Economic Calendar Begins Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell talks about the economy and inflation risks in an interview that will appear on CBS’s 60 Minutes Sunday night. The Fed strongly dismissed the possibility of a March rate cut at last week’s policy meeting, and markets are now accepting our long-term view that May is the starting point for the Fed’s policy easing cycle. Inflation is moving in the right direction.
ISM Non-Industry Survey. It is one of the most important indicators of the US economy, and forecasts show significant growth in January. If so, markets could continue to discount some Fed rates, helping the dollar regain momentum. PMI numbers are expected to rise to 52.00 from 50.6 previously.
In addition, investors will also hear from several Fed officials during the week, including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Governor Adriana Kugler, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Governor Michelle Bowman.
Tuesday – RBA Policy
Australia, Reserve Bank policy draws some volatility. According to market prices, the interest rate will remain unchanged at 4.35 percent, so the main focus will be whether the central bank will continue to keep rates on the table.
Minutes of the December meeting revealed that decision-makers discussed a second tax, but decided against it. Data since then have been on the decline as inflation slowed sharply in the fourth quarter as the labor market shed jobs and consumer spending disappointed during the holiday season.
While policy makers may consider raising interest rates again, it is clear that this is unlikely to happen. The domestic economy is faltering and Australia’s biggest trading partner, China, is struggling to cope with the collapse of its property market.
In addition, Bank of Canada Gov Macklem Speaks is released, which could have a significant impact on the Canadian do llar.
Wednesday – Bank of Canada Discussions
Summary of discussions held at the last meeting of the Bank of Canada. It is similar to meeting minutes and gives investors a detailed view of what was discussed.
Thursday -China Inflation
Markets reacted strongly to Chinese inflation data, which showed that deflationary pressures had intensified. Economists expect the consumer price index to fall 0.5% in January, compared to a 0.3% drop in the previous month.
The world’s second largest economy has been held back by persistently weak demand, a slowdown in the real estate industry and vulnerable investor sentiment.
The year has already started brutally in the Chinese market. The blue-chip index ended January down 6%, marking a record six-month losing streak.
Speaking of China, the latest inflation statistics will be released on Thursday. Forecasts suggest the world’s second-largest economy slipped deeper into deflation in January, which could fuel concerns about the future outlook and keep local stock markets and the China-pegged Australian dollar broadly on the defensive.
In addition, US unemployment claims will be published on the same day, the data is expected to be 219K from 224K before, which could have a neutral effect on the dollar. Although several members of the Federal Reserve can attract volatility against the dollar.
Friday- Canada Employment numbers
Canada’s January employment report is out and will show if the upward trend in the unemployment rate continues. The numbers are expected to increase modestly to 15k from 0.1k previously and 5.9% from 5.8% previously.
Also Read : Budget 2024 Highlights: With no change in income tax slabs ,Dollar Index Breaks Resistance – Expects Further Rise
Recommended Read : Forex Newsletter – 2 FEB 2024