Markets may react strongly to the release of China Economic data in start of the week. Further, Inflation numbers of New Zealand, UK and ECB policy meet will be the important triggers to watch this week
The key data and events for this week.(China GDP)
Monday – China Economic Data
- China Economic Number will set to release in start of the week. The June readings for both will be watched alongside the GDP estimate for the second quarter.
- China’s economy likely grew by 5.1% on a quarterly basis in the three months to June, a slowdown from the 5.3% pace in the first quarter. The Industrial Production y/y is forecast to have eased by 4.9% from 5.6%. Retail Sales y/y is expected to shrink by 3.3% from previous 3.7%.
Tuesday – US Retail Sales Data
- US Core Retail Sales m/m and Retail Sales m/m will the important triggers to watch on Tuesday. The number is foreseen at 0.1% compared to contraction of 0.1%, Retail Sales m/m at -0.2% compare to the previous 0.1%, that could have a volatile impact on the dollar.
Wednesday – UK and New Zealand CPI
- UK CPI y/y is expected to release inflation data on Wednesday in the spring, and a slight decrease the headline is expected at 1.9% compared to previous 2.0%.
- In New Zealand, the quarterly CPI release, the data is foreseen at 0.5% from previous 0.6%, the data will be just as crucial for rate cut bets. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand leaned to the dovish side at its latest meeting, sounding upbeat about the prospect of inflation hitting its 1-3% target band in the second half of the year.
Thursday – ECB Meeting
- Claimant Count Change data will be released later in the day. The number is forecast to be 23.4K, a decrease from 50.4K previously.
- The European Central Bank concludes its two-day policy meeting, with an anticipation of no change in interest rates after trimming them by 25 basis points to 4.25% at last month’s meeting.
- ECB Press Conference will be the important triggered to watch. The ECB justified its decision by pointing out the risk of undershooting its inflation target if it waited too long. Since then, inflation has fallen back marginally and there’s indications that pay pressures are cooling even though wage growth remains elevated.
- US Unemployment is said to be the next release of the day. The data is expected to jump by 229,000 compared to the previous week 222,000. This could have a destabilizing effect on the value of the dollar.
Friday – Japan CPI, UK Retail sales data
- The Japan’s CPI numbers will set to release on Friday. The number is foreseen at 2.7% slightly higher from the previous 2.5%. As the Bank of Japan is due on July 31, hence the data will give a final clue as to whether a rate hike is likely this month.
- UK Retail Sales m/m will be the next release to watch. As the data is expect to contract by 0.6% compare to expansion of 2.9%, that could wait on the sentiment.
- Core Retail Sales m/m numbers will be focusing their attention. The data is foreseen at 0.3% compared to the previous month 1.8%. Retail Sales m/m is expected to decrease by 0.2% compared to an expansion of 0.7%. That could weight on the dollar.
- Few Fed members speech will add some volatility to the dollar.
Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar
Learn and Trade with Ease
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