China CPI and IMF meeting  will be important trigger

The U.S. dollar witnessed a smart recovery yesterday, which paused bullion’s recent upside momentum. Greenback recovered half percent after a solid jobs report for March on Friday added to expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike rates again in May. While the Japanese yen weakened as Japan’s new central bank governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that he was in no hurry to dial back its massive stimulus.

U.S. employers maintained a strong pace of hiring in March, adding 236,000 jobs, pushing the unemployment rate back down to 3.5% and signaling labor market resilience that will keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates one more time next month.

Dollar index was last up 0.50% against a basket of currencies at 102.612, the highest since April 3. The euro fell 0.42% to $1.0853, the lowest since April 3. Yen gained 1.10% against the dollar.

Base metals had a Mixed trade, copper settled with minor loss. Aluminum ,Lead and ZINC were closed with small gains.

Crude oil retreated, after rising for three straight weeks, as concern about further interest rate hikes that could curb demand balanced the prospect of a tighter market due to supply cuts from OPEC+ produce

Important Economic Data and Events


At 7.00 am – CPI y/y. Forecast is to have unchanged at 1.00%

At 7.00 am – PPI y/y. Forecast is to have contraction by -2.5% from -1.4%.  

Above data expect to have a negative impact on Base metal.

Tentative – New Loans. Forecast is to have expanded by 3300B from 1810B.

Tentative – M2 Money Supply y/y. Forecast is 12.7% slightly lower from 12.9% previous.

Both data could have a neutral impact on the dollar and Yuan.


At  2.00am – Sentix Investor Confidence. Forecast is to have a contraction by -11.7 from -11.1 in last month.

At 2.30 pm – Retail Sales m/m. Forecast is to have a contraction by -0.8% from 0.3% in the previous month.

Data could have a negative impact on Euro and bullions.


 At 11:00 pm – FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks

Tentative – IMF Meetings second day.

Both events will have a volatile impact on dollars and bullions.