Here is the checklist of leading indicators which may impact the market. Currently, market is directionless due to which there is an irregularity in the movement of the trend.
EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y at 3:30pm
Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers
Released monthly, on the last business day of the current month
Next Release Date Jan 6, 2023
Eurostat bases this estimate on energy prices and 13 euro area member states that report early CPI data. There are 2 versions of this report released about two weeks apart – Flash and Final. The report is extremely early and tends to have a significant impact
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate
Forecast- [10.4%]
Previous- 10.6%]
Actual- ?
Impact- The forecast figure seems to be neutral for base metals and the dollar while positive for bullions. The actual figure to release at 3:30pm.
EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y at 3:30pm
Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco
Released monthly, on the last business day of the current month
Next Release Date Jan 6, 2023
Eurostat bases this estimate on 13 euro area member states that report early CPI data. There are 2 versions of this report released about two weeks apart – Flash and Final. The Flash release, which the source first reported in Apr 2013, is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate
Forecast- [5.0%]
Previous- [5.0%]
Actual- ?
Impact- The forecast figure seems to be neutral for base metals and the dollar while positive for bullions. The actual figure to release at 3:30pm.
USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 6:45pm
Measures: Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government
Released monthly, usually on the first Wednesday after the month ends
This data provides an early look at employment growth, usually 2 days ahead of the government-released employment data that it’s designed to mimic. Source changed series calculation formula in Feb 2007, Dec 2008, and Nov 2012, to better align with government data
Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity
Forecast- [197K]
Previous- [239K]
Actual- ?
Impact- The forecast figure seems to be negative for base metals and the dollar while positive for bullions. The actual figure to release at 6:45pm
USD Prelim GDP q/q at 7:00pm
Measures: Annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy
Released quarterly, about 60 days after the quarter ends
Next Release Date Feb 23, 2023
While this is q/q data, it’s reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). The ‘Previous’ listed is the ‘Actual’ from the Advance release and therefore the ‘History’ data will appear unconnected. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart – Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact
It’s the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health
Forecast- [2.8%]
Previous- [2.6%]
Actual- ?
Impact- The forecast figure seems to be neutral for base metals and the dollar while positive for bullions. The actual figure to release at 7:00pm
USD JOLTS Job Openings at 8:30pm
Measures: Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry
Released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends
Next Release Date Jan 4, 2023
It’s released late, but can impact the market because job openings are a leading indicator of overall employment
Forecast- [10.24M]
Previous- 10.72M]
Actual- ?
Impact- The forecast figure seems to be negative for base metals and the dollar while positive for bullions. The actual figure to release at 8:30pm.
USD Pending Home Sales m/m at 8:30pm
Measures: Change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction
Released monthly, about 28 days after the month ends
Next Release Date Dec 28, 2022
This data is released about a week later than Existing Home Sales, but it’s more forward-looking as a contract is signed several weeks before the home is counted as sold
It’s a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction
Forecast- [-5.3%]
Previous- [-10.2%]
Actual- ?
Impact- The forecast figure seems to be positive for base metals and the dollar while negative for bullions. The actual figure to release at 8:30pm.
Crude Oil Inventories at 9:00 PM
Measures: Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week
Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends
Next Release Dec 7, 2022
While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada’s sizable energy sector
It’s the primary gauge of supply and demand imbalances in the market, which can lead to changes in production levels and price volatility
Forecast- [-3.0M]
Previous- [-3.7M]
Actual- ?
Impact- The forecast figure seems to be positive for Crude Oil The actual figure to release at 9:00 PM
Source: Forex Factory
For more day to day leading indicators stay tuned with us!!