Canada Retail sales, US Goods order in Focus today
FX Update
The euro and Japanese yen sparked against the dollar on Thursday. The dollar paused after rallying to a nearly three-month high, with the greenback only briefly moving off earlier lows as data supported views for slower rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The Fed is likely to discount the climb earlier in claims this month due to distortions from Hurricane Helene.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.37% to 104.05, its first decline after three straight sessions of gains, with the euro up 0.39% at $1.0823 after hitting a nearly four-month low of $1.076 on Wednesday.
Recent comments from Fed officials have indicated the central bank will take a gradual approach to cutting rates. Inflation pressures have been easing but still have yet to return to where they need to be, said Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack on Thursday.
Crude Oil:
Crude Oil prices eased about 1% in volatile trade on Thursday on reports the U. S. and Israel will try to restart talks on a possible ceasefire in Gaza. Brent futures LCOc1 settled 58 cents, or 0.8%, lower at $74.38 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) CLc1 slipped 58 cents, or 0.8%, to end at $70.19. Earlier in the session, both benchmarks traded up over $1 a barrel on concerns the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could result in oil supply disruptions and from uncertainty ahead of the U. S. presidential election on Nov. 5.
Gold:
Gold prices rose over half percent 1% to trade near record highs as safe-haven demand from persistent geopolitical concerns bolstered prices, while palladium saw a 9% surge on concerns of supply sanctions on top-producer Russia.
Copper:
Copper futures slipped over 1%, giving back gains from the previous session, weighed down by U. S. imports of copper have surged after traders capitalized on a rare arbitrage window that opened between the CME and the London Metal Exchange (LME) contracts at the height of the squeeze on CME short position holders..
Prices action (MCX)
Gold 78327 (+0.66%), Silver 97032 (+0.07%), Copper 798.15(-1,02%) Crude Oil 5911 (-1.09%) Natural gas 209 (+7.46%)
Major Economic Data Update
· Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data showed that Eurozone’s economic activity continued to contract in October. The PMI ticked higher to 49.7 from 49.6 in September, below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction.
· Preliminary October Composite PMI in the UK edged lower to 51.7 from 52.6 in October, making it difficult for Pound Sterling to extend its recovery.
· Japan manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) declined to 49.0 in October from 49.7 in September. The index stayed below the 50.0 threshold separating growth from contraction for a fourth straight month.
· India Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 58.6 this month from September’s final reading of 58.3, which was a 10-month low.
· Core consumer prices in Tokyo rose 1.8% in October from a year earlier. The core consumer price index for Japan’s capital, which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, compared with economists’ median estimate for a 1.7% annual rise.
· U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, rose to 54.3 this month from a final reading of 54.0 in September. A reading above 50 signals expansion.
· Weekly initial jobless claims fell to 227,000, below the 242,000 estimate of economists polled by Reuters, while continuing claims rose to a nearly three-year high.
Major Economic Data and Event scheduled today (Canada Retail sales, US Goods order)
Japan
At 5.00am- Tokyo Core CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 1.7% from previous 2%.
At 5.20am- SPPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 2.7% from previous 2.7%.
Above data could have a positive impact on the Yen.
Eurozone
At 12.30pm- Spanish Unemployment Rate. Data is foreseen at 11.4% from previous 11.3%
At 1.30pm-
German ifo Business Climate. Data is foreseen at 85.6 from previous 85.4.
M3 Money Supply y/y. Data is foreseen at 2.9% from previous 2.9%.
Private Loans y/y. Data is foreseen at 0.8% from previous 0.6%.
At 6.30pm- Belgian NBB Business Climate
Above data could have a neutral impact on the Euro.
Canada
At 6.00pm
Core Retail Sales m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.3% from previous 0.4%.
Retail Sales m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.5% from previous 0.9%.
NHPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.2% from 0.0%.
Above data could have a volatile impact on the Canadian Dollar.
US
At 6.00pm-
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.1% from previous 0.5%.
Durable Goods Orders m/m. Data is foreseen at -1.1% from previous 0.0%.
At 7.30pm-Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Data is foreseen at 69.2 from previous 68.9.
At 8.30pm- FOMC Member Collins Speaks.
Above data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.
Day 5- IMF Meetings.
Happy Trading!
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