Dollar retreated from a five-week high on Monday, pressured by a weak manufacturing index in New York state and as it consolidated gains made last week amid fears about the debt ceiling and the U.S. economy.
As weekend elections appeared to be headed for a runoff, the Turkish lira sank to a near-record low in emerging markets while the Thai baht rallied on a more decisive election outcome.
Dollar index settled at 102.4240, down by 0.28%, while USDINR settled at 82.20, almost flat.
Bullion prices recovered slightly. Gold prices settled with a gain of 0.23% at 61027. Silver settled with a gain of 0.48% at 73402.
Copper price slid by 0.12%, settling at 728.10, Zinc lost by 0.33%, and settled at 229.05. Aluminium prices are up by 0.65% at 207.70.
Crude Oil prices recovered more than 1.50% on the prospect of tightening supplies in Canada and elsewhere, although recession fears kept pressuring the market.
Brent crude futures were up 1.7% to $75.40 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $71.32 a barrel, up 1.8%. MCX crude oil was up by 1.56% and settled at 5863.00
Economic Data and Events To Watch
China
At 7.30 am – Retail sales industrial production, and fixed asset investment will have a strong impact on the market.
Retail sales data expect to come at 22.00%, much higher than the previous 10.6%.
Industrial Production y/y data is foreseen at 10.9%, much higher than the previous 3.9%.
Fixed Asset Investment ytd/ data is foreseen at 5.7% higher than the previous 5.1%.
U.K.
At U.K, 11.30 am – The wage component data of Tuesday’s jobs report will be closely watched. Data is foreseen at 31.2K, slightly higher from the previous 28.2 K.
The unemployment rate is foreseen at 3.8%, unchanged from the previous.
Eurozone
At 2.30 pm- ZEW Institute surveys of business conditions and sentiment in the region’s largest economy Germany are to be released.
Data is foreseen at -1 %, -5.4% against the previous month of 6.4 and 4.1%, respectively.
Flash GDP q/q, data are foreseen at 0.1%, unchanged from the previous.
Trade Balance, data is foreseen at 5.6B higher than -0.1B previously.
The above data is expected to have a mixed impact on the Euro.
Canada
At 6.00 pm- CPI m/m is to be released. Data is foreseen at 0.5%, unchanged from the previous.
Manufacturing Sales m/m at the same time is foreseen at 0.7% against a contraction of -3.6% previously.
The above data is expected to have a mixed impact on the Dollar.
US
At 6.00 pm – Core Retail Sales m/m due to release. Data is foreseen at 0.5% higher against a contraction of -0.8%
Retail Sales m/m data is foreseen at 0.8% higher from the previous -1.0%.
At 6.45 pm – Industrial Production m/m data due to release. Data is foreseen at 0.00 lower than 0.4% previously.
Above data could have a mixed impact on the Dollar.
At 7.30 pm – ECB President Lagarde and FOMC Member Barr
At 9.45 pm – FOMC Member Williams
All of the above speeches will bring volatility to the market.