After a speculative Crunch – Will CRUDE take some breath?


Crude oil paused its recent fall, and was able to recover slightly.  Oil found some ground after a meeting between Saudi Arabia and Russia calmed markets amid strong China demand expectations. But were headed for their biggest weekly falls since December as a banking crisis rocked global financial and oil markets.

The advisory committee of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, will meet on April 3.

Further declines in prices may prompt OPEC+ to reduce supplies to prevent a forecast inventory build in the second quarter, analysts at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY) said in a note.

Brent crude futures firmed by 1.85% to $75 a barrels snapped some recent losses.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude went up by 1.75% to $69.42 a barrel, after closing 1.1% higher in the previous session.

Both contracts hit their lowest in more than a year this week and are set to post their biggest weekly falls since Dec at about 10%.

Crude oil posted the biggest intraday fall since the start of the year this week. It witnessed a steep fall followed by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank (NASDAQ:SBNY). And trouble at Credit Suisse and First Republic Bank (NYSE:FRC), which sent the U.S. and Swiss governments scrambling to provide support.

But battered by fears of a deepening crisis for banks worldwide, market sentiment remained fragile with both benchmarks giving up some early Thursday gains that saw Brent climb by more than $1.

Credit Suisse on Thursday said it would borrow up to $54 billion from the Swiss central bank to shore up its liquidity. And investor confidence after a slump in its shares intensified fears about a global financial crisis. This statement supported oil prices. 

Technical View –  Pennant pattern worked perfectly as expected on 13 March 2023. Crude oil Prices plunged drastically, and yesterday made a low of 5445. Hit all predicted levels.

Technical, CRUDE OIL lost almost 12% in the last three trading sessions. Morning prices action resulted in formation of long bearish candlestick which is yet indicating a bearish momentum in near future.

However, momentum indicators are bottom out and giving positive cross over which is creating probability for a short time pullback.  Adding to this, after the recent fall, prices may consolidate above its 17 March low. Hence, Prices appear to test immediate resistance at 5880-5980 levels.

Alternatively, crucial support is seen at 5445 and a break below only CRUDE OIL will show more correction towards 5395-5320 levels.