Below is the checklist of major events which may create volatility in the market.
EUR: Main Refinancing Rate at 5:45 PM
Measures: Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system
Scheduled 8 times per year
Next Release Oct 27, 2022
The rate decision is usually priced into the market, so it tends to be overshadowed by the ECB Press Conference, held 45 minutes later. Source changed release frequency from monthly to eight times per year as of Jan 2015
Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation – traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future
Forecast- [1.25%]
Previous- [0.50%]
Actual- ?
Impact- The forecast figure seems to be negative for base metals and the dollar while positive for bullions. The actual figure to release at 5:45 PM.
EUR: Monetary Policy Statement at 5:45 PM
Scheduled 8 times per year
Next Release Oct 27, 2022
The ECB usually changes the statement slightly at each release. It’s these changes that traders focus on. Source first released in Mar 2016
It’s the primary tool the ECB uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions
USD: Unemployment Claims at 6:00 PM
Measures: The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week
Released weekly, usually on the first Thursday after the week ends
Next Release Sep 15, 2022
This is the nation’s earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week – there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes
Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country’s monetary policy
Forecast- [234K]
Previous- [232K]
Actual- ?
Impact- The forecast figure seems to be slightly negative for base metals and the dollar while positive for bullions. The actual figure to release at 6:00 PM.
EUR: ECB Press Conference at 6:15 PM
Scheduled 8 times per year, about 45 minutes after the Minimum Bid Rate is announced
Next Release Oct 27, 2022
The press conference is about an hour long and has 2 parts – first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create heavy market volatility. The press conference is webcasted on the ECB website with a slight delay from real-time. Source changed release frequency from monthly to eight times per year as of Jan 2015
It’s the primary method the ECB uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate and other policy decisions, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues regarding future monetary policy
USD: Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 6:40 PM*
Measures: Due to participate in a moderated discussion at the Cato Institute’s Annual Monetary Conference, via satellite. Audience questions expected
Fed Chair Feb 2018 – Feb 2026. Fed Governor May 2012 – Jan 2028. Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues
As head of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation’s currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy
Natural Gas Storage at 8:00 PM
Measures: Change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week
Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends
Next Release Date Sep 15, 2022
Inventories are used to maintain price stability during supply shortages and periods of increasing demand
Forecast- [51B]
Previous- [61B]
Actual- ?
Impact- The forecast figure seems to be slightly positive for Natural Gas The actual figure is to release at 8:00 PM.
Crude Oil Inventories at 8:00 PM
Measures: Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week
Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends
Next Release Date Sep 14, 2022
While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada’s sizable energy sector
It’s the primary gauge of supply and demand imbalances in the market, which can lead to changes in production levels and price volatility
Forecast- [-1.4M]
Previous- [-3.3M]
Actual- ?
Impact- The forecast figure seems to be slightly positive for Crude Oil The actual figure to release at 8:00 PM.
For more day to day major events, stay tuned with us!!