The upcoming release of the US CPI data for November 2024 is set to be a pivotal moment for financial markets and Federal Reserve policy decisions.
U.S. inflation data are likely to be the highlight of the week as the outlook for U.S. interest rates remains uncertain. In Europe, a rate cut is expected by the European Central Bank and by the Swiss National Bank. In Asia, a decision by Australia’s central bank, plus key data from Japan and China are the main items in focus.
Major Data and Event for this week along with US CPI Data
INDIA
India reports inflation and trade figures for November, which markets will be hoping show some positive signs after the latest quarterly growth print disappointed. The data comes after the Reserve Bank of India signaled that its priority remains on tamping down inflation, even as it lowered its annual growth forecast.
Economists will look to CPI data on Thursday to see if price pressures have pulled back, particularly after a recent uptick pushed headline inflation above the upper threshold of the central bank’s target range.
That will be followed by trade on Friday.
US CPI Data
U.S. November inflation data, due Wednesday, offers the Fed a final gauge of price pressures ahead of its Dec. 17-18 meeting. After 75 bps in rate cuts since September, markets expect another 25-bps cut.
A strong jobs report boosted these bets, but signs of stalled inflation progress could shift expectations. Inflation concerns are resurfacing amid President-elect Trump’s tariff hike plans, which could add upward pressure.
ECB Rate cut
The ECB’s final policy meeting of the year on Thursday is expected to deliver a fourth 25-bps rate cut. While inflation rose in November, it remains on track for the 2% target. Updated forecasts are likely to lower 2024 growth and inflation projections.
Since October, Europe faces rising U.S. tariff risks, political turmoil in France and Germany, slowing business activity, and a weaker euro. ECB President Lagarde warns a trade war would harm all economies, not just U.S. tariff targets.
CANADA
The Bank of Canada announces an interest-rate decision Wednesday. It is widely expected to cut interest rates, though analysts are divided as to whether the central bank will opt for another larger 50 basis-point reduction or whether it will revert back to a more typical 25 basis-point cut. Money markets suggest a roughly 50% chance of either outcome.
On the other hand, the prospect of hefty tariffs being imposed under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump could push policymakers toward a larger reduction.
U.K.
Monthly U.K. gross domestic product data for October are due on Friday, where a rebound is expected following a small contraction in September.
Also on Friday, industrial production and trade data for October will be released.
Other U.K. data include the RICS housing survey Thursday and GfK consumer confidence data Friday.
The U.K. is scheduled to auction the November 2033 gilt on Tuesday and the July 2034 gilt on Wednesday.
SWITZERLAND
The Swiss National Bank policy will attract attention on Thursday. The policy is expected to cut its 1% policy rate, with uncertainty over a 25 or 50 basis-point reduction.
Weak inflation data and a strong Swiss franc point to a likely 50-point cut to 0.5%, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. Switzerland also holds a bond auction on Wednesday..
JAPAN
The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey, out Friday, is in focus as markets seek clues on a potential rate hike this month. Revised Q3 GDP data, due Monday, is expected to confirm 0.2% quarterly growth (0.9% annualized), with possible upward revisions in capital expenditures. October’s current account balance and November’s bank lending will also be released Monday.
A five-year Japanese government bond auction on Tuesday, worth ¥2.3 trillion, will draw attention ahead of the BoJ’s Dec. 18-19 meeting.
CHINA
China’s key data releases begin Monday with inflation figures, signaling demand trends. Consumer prices are expected to rise 0.5% YoY in November, up from October’s 0.3%, while factory-gate prices likely fell 2.8%, slightly improving from a 2.9% drop.
Despite Beijing’s economic revival efforts, deflationary pressures persist amid a lingering property downturn.
Until then, Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets
Also Read: US Dollar Index Rises: Will CPI Data Spark a New Trend?
Recommended Read: The Finale of the US Elections 2024: What Lies Ahead for the Commodities Market?
Want Help On Your Trades ?
Chat with us