Gold prices remarkable rally took a step back on Monday, however settled almost flat as investors braced for a packed week of U.S. economic data releases that could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory.
Yesterday, slip follows a recent record-breaking rally in gold, fueled by investor interest in safe-haven assets amidst economic uncertainties. However, rising Treasury yields provided a competing appeal, curbing demand for non-yielding assets like gold. Meanwhile, the dollar’s strength added additional pressure, making the metal more expensive for international buyers.
This week’s economic calendar holds particular importance as it provides multiple indicators on the U.S. economy’s strength and direction. Analysts are closely watching job-related metrics, including the JOLTS Job Openings report, ADP Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, and the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls. These labor statistics are essential for market participants seeking insight into the Federal Reserve’s next moves on monetary policy.
In addition to employment data, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for the third quarter of 2024, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index— the Fed’s preferred inflation measure— are expected to offer further clues on inflation trends and economic resilience.
Meanwhile, political events continue to influence sentiment. With the November 5 U.S. election just days away, traders are monitoring polling updates. FiveThirtyEight has reported a slight edge for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris over President Trump in national polls, though Trump’s odds have improved, now standing at 52% compared to Harris’s 48%.
Global geopolitics also loomed large over the weekend as Israel reportedly launched missile strikes on multiple Iranian military sites, sparing energy and nuclear installations. This escalation has heightened attention on potential regional instability, which could have broader economic implications.
Adding to the uncertainty, Federal Reserve officials entered a blackout period as they prepare for the November 7-8 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. No public statements are expected until Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference.
Today, focus will shift on the release of the JOLTS Job Openings report for September, expected to show a slight dip to 7.99 million from the previous 8.04 million. Additionally, the Conference Board (CB) is set to release the October Consumer Confidence reading, projected to inch up from 98.7 to 99.3. These early data points may offer a preview of sentiment before the week’s major reports, setting the stage for market movements and further influencing gold’s path forward.
Technical Outlook – Gold Futures
Gold prices experienced a rebound from the day’s low 78,111 yesterday, closing at 78,566 from Friday’s 78,532close. Since Wednesday, prices have been consolidating above the critical support level at 77,450, forming an indecisive candlestick pattern. Additionally, the RSI is trading at mid level, not indicating any clear view.
In the near term, volatility is expected to persist amid upcoming key economic data from the US and uncertainty around the elections, while dips towards the 77,500–77,450 zone may attract buying interest, potentially driving a recovery toward immediate resistance at 78,980–79,659. Further, a breakdown below 77,450 could expose prices to further declines, targeting 76,300–75,650.
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Commodity Samachar Securities
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