US CPI and Unemployment claims in Focus today. The Indian rupee ended flat on Wednesday while dollar-rupee forward premiums declined
Dollar/Rupee
The Indian rupee ended flat on Wednesday while dollar-rupee forward premiums declined after the Reserve Bank of India kept its benchmark rates unchanged but tweaked its policy stance to “neutral”, opening the door for rate cuts. The rupee closed at 83.9625 against the U.S. dollar, unchanged from its closing level on Tuesday. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which consists of three RBI and three external members, kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% for a tenth straight policy meeting.
Crude Oil:
Oil prices fell over 1.40% on rising U.S. crude inventories, while the risk of Iranian supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict and Hurricane Milton in the United States curbed price declines.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 82 cents, or 1% at $76.36 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures CLc1 lost 62 cents, or 0.8%, at $72.95.
Crude inventories jumped by 5.8 million barrels to 422.7 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2 million-barrel rise.
Gold:
Gold retreated for the sixth straight day on Wednesday on an advancing dollar and diminished expectations for a larger rate cut in November while markets awaited minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting for further insights.
Copper:
Copper prices extended their fall on Wednesday also, touched lowest in two weeks, after top metal consumer China failed to convince investors on how its stimulus would get the economy back on track. Aluminium prices fell further with producers selling forward to lock in high prices and amid uncertainty over China’s plan to revive its economy.
Prices action (MCX)
Gold 74934 (-0.30%), Silver 88872 (+0.16%), Copper 826.25(-1.04%) Crude Oil 6119 (-2%) Natural gas 222.7(-3.93%)
Yesterday Data and Event Update –
The Reserve bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to leave rates steady on Oct 9despite the U.S. Federal Reserve’s aggressive 50 basis-point rate cut in September. The RBI’s focus on food price inflation suggests the repo rate will be held at 6.50%.
While inflation has moderated from June’s high, the consumer price index rose 3.65% annually in August, slightly above July’s 3.60%.Sticky food inflation will prevent the RBI from cutting rates in October, but it may lean towards an easing at its December rate review..
FOMC Minutes: A substantial majority of participants supported a 50 basis point cut Highlights from the Sept FOMC Minutes Substantial majority” supported 50bp cut. Committee gained “greater confidence” inflation moving sustainably toward 2% goal.
Major Economic Data and Event scheduled today (US CPI and Unemployment claims)
New Zealand
At 1.15pm -RBA Assist Gov Hunter Speaks
Above data could have a negative impact on the dollar.
Eurozone
At 1.30pm— Italian Industrial Production m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.3% vs -0.9%.
At 5.00pm- ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts.
Above data could have a neutral impact on the Euro.
US
At 6.00pm-
Core CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.2% from previous 0.3%.
CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.1% from previous 0.2%.
CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 2.3% from previous 2.5%.
Unemployment Claims. Data is foreseen at 231k from previous 225k.
At 6.45pm- FOMC Member Cook Speaks.
At 8.00pm-
FOMC Member Barkin Speaks.
Natural Gas Storage.
At 8.30pm- FOMC Member Williams Speaks.
Above data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.
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