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Will US inflation data be the ‘game changer’ today?


U.S. dollar pared its recent losses yesterday as traders revised their positions before the release of U.S. inflation.

U.S. consumer inflation data, due later today, as well as producer prices on Thursday, will be carefully studied for more cues on monetary policy and the path of interest rates.

Bullions retreated from the day’s high as investors await release of the U.S. consumer price index data. Base metals moved slightly yesterday. Oil prices jumped about 2% to a near 10-month high on a tighter supply outlook and OPEC optimism over the resilience of energy demand in major economies.

MCX Gold futures settled at 58626 down 0.52%. Silver at 71934 almost flat. Copper prices settled at 732.10 down 0.19%. Crude oil settled at 7385 up 1.89%. Natural gas settled at 230.40 up 6.13%. Dollar index traded at 104.767, up 0.23%.

Economic data and events scheduled today

Eurozone                                                    

At 1.30pm – Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate. Data is foreseen at 8.0% compared to previous 8.0%.

At 2.30pm – Industrial Production m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.80%, previous was at 0.50%.

Tentative – German 30-y Bond Auction

All above data could have a volatile impact on the Euro.

UK

At 11.30pm –

GDP m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.2% previous was at 0.5%.

Construction Output m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.50% unchanged from 1.6%.

Goods Trade Balance. Foreseen at-15.9B from previous -15.5B.

Index of Services 3m/3m. Data is foreseen at 0.2% from the previous 0.1%.

Industrial Production m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.6% from the previous 1.8%.

Manufacturing Production m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.9% from the previous 2.4%.

Above data could have a negative impact on the Pound.

U.S.

At 6.00pm –

Core CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.2% previous was at 0.2%.

CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.6% unchanged from 0.2%.

CPI y/y. Foreseen at 3.6% from previous 3.2%.

At 8.00pm – Crude Oil Inventories. Previous inventories were at -6.3M.

At 11.30pm – Federal Budget Balance. Data is foreseen at -251.0B% from previous -220.8B.

All above data could have a negative impact on the dollar.