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US Inflation and Meeting minutes will be main driver for the market


Last week, Market reacted strongly on Opec+ Meeting and US monthly employment data. Precious metal jumped to the new multi week high, dollar index weakens nearly half percent. Crude jumped near to multi week high, and base metals retreated slightly from the weekly high.

Now this week, U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve minutes will play an important role for the market momentum.  Further, US banks kick off first quarter earnings and the IMF is to release updated global growth forecasts. Which will decide the next move of the market.

Economic data and event for the week

US Important economic data and event

Wednesday – US Inflation released on Wednesday. Forecast to have a contraction by 0.2% from 0.4%. While Core CPI forecast to have a contraction by 0.4% from 0.5%.

The inflation data is coming on the heels of the latest U.S. jobs report which pointed to persistent tightness in the labor market. Adding to bets for the Fed to hike rates again at their May 2-3 policy meeting as risks to financial stability ease.

On the same day, The Fed is to publish the minutes of its March meeting. The minutes will be scrutinized for clues about the appetite for further policy tightening. As well as officials’ views on the health of the financial system.

Fed policymakers voted unanimously to raise interest rates for the ninth straight time in March, indicating that combating inflation remains their top priority.

Recent turmoil in the banking sector has added to fears that aggressive monetary tightening could not only tip the economy into recession but that it could trigger more bank failures.

Investors are pricing in rate cuts before year end, but the Fed has said they will keep rates at a high level for as long as it takes.

Thursday – US Weekly Unemployment Claims and Core PPI m/m will be released. Both data are expected to have a mixed impact on the dollar based on forecast.

Friday – Retail Sales m/m data will be released. Forecast to have a contraction by -0.4% from 0.1% which could have a negative impact on the dollar.

IMF forecasts

Central bankers and finance ministers will gather in Washington on Monday. As the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund kick off their Spring meeting.

The IMF is to publish its updated global economic growth forecast on Tuesday against a background of concerns over high inflation and risks to financial stability.

The G20 group of finance ministers is to hold talks on Wednesday.

A slower than previous economic growth forecast is expected to have a negative impact on the dollar and positive for bullion.

UK Important economic data and event

BOE Gov Bailey Speaks is due to speak on Wednesday and Thursday. Investors will be on the lookout for any indications. On how policymakers are viewing the inflation threat amid ongoing turmoil in the banking sector.

UK’s GDP numbers on a monthly basis will also be watched. Data is foreseen at 0.1% from the previous month of 0.3%. Data could have a negative impact on the pound.

India Important economic data and event

Wednesday – India Industrial production data will be released. Data is foreseen slightly lower at 5.1% from 5.2% on YoY basis.

Friday – WPI inflation will be released. Data is foreseen lower at 1.81% from 3.85% in previous.

On the same day, Trade Balance, Export and Import also will be released.

All above data will have a strong impact on Indian Rupee as well on Bullion prices.