Will U.S. Non-Farm Employment numbers bring clutter in the market today?

U.S. Non-Farm Employment numbers will bring clutter today

The U.S. dollar retreated against its major counterparts after a brief rebound in the previous day as data showing the U.S. labour market remains strong increased chances the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this month.

According to an ADP National Employment report, private payrolls increased significantly in June, the most since February 2022, while the Labour Department reported that the number of Americans submitting new claims for unemployment benefits increased only modestly over the previous week.

ADP’s private payroll reading was 497,000 jobs created in June, well above expectations for 228,000. Jobless claims for last week came in slightly higher than expected. Job openings of 9.8 million at the end of May were slightly lower than expected.

Later, a survey by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed the U.S. services sector grew faster than expected in June as new orders picked up, adding to data indicating a resilient economy in the face of tighter monetary policy.

The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of six others and settled at 103.110 compared to the previous day’s close of 103.348 down by 0.23%

Bullions off from the day’s high on a fear that the U.S. jobs report for June could surprise to the upside and make the Fed more hawkish. Gold Prices settled at 58401 compared to the previous day’s close of 58473, which retreated from 58650. Silver prices settled at 70324 compared to the previous day’s close of 71357.

Copper prices had a volatile trade for the fourth consecutive day and settled at 715.80, down by 0.20%.

Crude oil struggled in a small range yesterday as strong labour data fueled fears of rising U.S. interest rates, but were set for a second straight week of gains amid signs of tighter supplies and improving demand. MCX Crude oil settled at 5941, up 0.15%.

Data on Thursday showed that In the week leading up to June 30, stockpiles decreased more than anticipated. A larger-than-expected decline in US petrol inventories suggests improved fuel demand throughout the summer travel season.

Economic data and events to watch


At 10.30 am – Leading Indicators. The forecast is 97.5%  higher than the previous 96.8%.

Above data could have a positive impact on Yen.


At 11.30 am – German Industrial Production m/m. Data is forecast to come at 0.0% from the previous 0.3%.

At 1.30 pm – Italian Retail Sales m/m. Data is forecast to have a contraction of 0.2% against the 0.2% previous expansion.

At 5.30 pm – German Buba President Nagel Speaks.

At 11.30 pm – ECB President Lagarde Speaks.

Above data could have a negative to volatile impact on the Euro.


At 11.30 am – Halifax HPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.1% higher than previous 0.0%

At 8.00 pm – MPC Member Mann Speaks.

Above data could have a negative impact on the pound.       


At 6:00 pm – Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. Data is foreseen at 19.8K, 5.3% higher from the previous reading of -17.3K and 5.2%.

At 7.30 pm – Ivey PMI. Data is foreseen at 51.5 lower than the previous 53.5.

Above data could have a negative impact on the dollar.


At 6.00 pm- Average Hourly Earnings m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.3%, unchanged from the previous.

At 6.00 pm – Non-Farm Employment Change. Data is forecast to come at 224K lower than the previous 339k.

At 6.00 pm – Unemployment Rate. Data is forecast to come at 3.6% lower from the previous 3.7%.   

At 8.30 pm – Natural Gas Storage. Data was foreseen at 65B lower than the previous week’s storage of 76B.

The above data and events will have a negative impact on the dollar