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Commodity Market Today | Eventful Day Ahead: US PCE & Europe CPI in Focus


Gold prices extended its fall even as the dollar dropped off a 13-month high yesterday. As Federal Reserve policymakers reiterate their hawkish stance on the interest rate outlook. The Yellow metal continues its three-day losing stick as bets for unchanged interest rates fade amid a resilient US economy.

crude oil paused its recent bullish rally and retreated more than two percent as traders took profits after prices earlier soared to 10-month highs and some worried that high interest rates may weigh on western economies and oil demand.

In the morning, the Brent front-month hit $97.69, its highest since November 2022 and WTI to its highest since August 2022 at $95.03 on scarce supply and inventory declines.

Meanwhile, persistent concerns over an economic slowdown in China, the world’s largest copper importer and strong dollar hold copper prices lower.

The dollar index which measures the currency against six major counterparts fell 0.40% at 106.2340 (At 11.50pm). MCX Gold future settled at 57128 down 0.94%. Silver at 70600 almost flat. Copper prices settled at 719.70 up 1.47%.  Crude oil settled at 7626 down 2.17%. Natural gas settled at 244.70 up 0.25%.

Economic data and events scheduled today

Japan

At 10.30am –

Consumer Confidence. Data is foreseen at 36.2 unchanged from previous 36.2

Housing Starts y/y. Data is foreseen at -8.7% from previous -6.7%.

Both data could have a negative impact on the Yen.

Eurozone

At 11.30am –

German Import Prices m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.60% from previous -0.60%.

German Retail Sales m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.5% from previous -0.8%.

At 12.15pm –

 French Consumer Spending m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.40% from the previous 0.3%.

French Prelim CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.3% from previous 1.0%.

At 1.10pm- ECB President Lagarde Speaks.

At 1.25pm – German Unemployment Change. Data is foreseen at 15k from the previous 18k.

Tentative – ECB Economic Bulletin.

At 2.30pm –

 Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y. Data is foreseen at 4.8% from the previous 5.3%.

CPI Flash Estimate y/y. Data is foreseen at 4.5% from previous 5.2%.

Italian Prelim CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.10% from the previous 0.3%.

Above data could have a volatile impact on the Euro.

U.K.

At 11.30am –

Current Account. Data is foreseen at -14.5B from previous -10.8B.

Final GDP q/q. Data is foreseen at 0.2% from previous 0.2%.

At 2.00pm –

M4 Money Supply m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.2% from previous -0.50%.

Mortgage Approvals. Data is foreseen at 48K from the previous 49K.

Net Lending to Individuals m/m. Data is foreseen at 1.5B from previous 1.4B.

Above data could have a volatile impact on the Pound.

CANADA

At 6.00am – GDP m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.1% from previous -0.20%.

Above data could have a positive impact on the dollar.

U.S.

At 6.00pm-.

Core PCE Price Index m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.2% from the previous 0.2%.

Goods Trade Balance. Data is foreseen at -91.4B from previous -90.9B.

Personal Income m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.4% from the previous 0.2%.

Personal Spending m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.5% from the previous 0.8%.

Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.1% from previous -0.2%.

At 7.15pm – Chicago PMI. Data is foreseen at 47.5 from the previous 48.70.

At 7.30pm – Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Data is Foreseen at 67.70 from previous 67.70.

All above data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.