1.When the World is in Chaos, Gold Shines
Gold has one simple rule: the more uncertainty, the higher its value. Think about it—when there’s a war, a financial crisis, or global instability, people rush to buy gold because it’s a safe store of value.
For example, when the Russia-Ukraine war broke out in 2022, gold prices shot up. Why? Because investors got nervous, the stock market became volatile, and everyone wanted an asset they could rely on. The same thing happened during the COVID-19 pandemic—gold hit record highs as investors sought stability in an unpredictable world.
2. Central Banks Are Big Players
Believe it or not, central banks (the institutions that control a country’s money supply) can move gold prices simply by buying or selling gold reserves. When they buy, prices tend to rise. When they sell, prices can drop.
Take China and India, for example—both countries have been increasing their gold reserves over the past few years, which has helped push prices higher. It’s a clear sign that central banks still see gold as a valuable asset for the long term.
3. The Interest Rate Connection: Gold vs. Cash
Gold and interest rates have a love-hate relationship. When interest rates are low, gold becomes more attractive because holding cash or bonds isn’t as rewarding. But when interest rates rise, gold tends to lose some of its shine because investors can get better returns elsewhere.
Look at 2020—the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to near zero, and gold prices hit record highs.
Now, in 2025, markets are speculating that interest rates might go down again, and guess what?
Gold is climbing once more.
4. Inflation: The Silent Price Booster
We all feel it when prices go up—groceries cost more, gas is expensive, and your money doesn’t stretch as far as it used to. That’s inflation, and when inflation rises, gold usually follows. Why? Because people see gold as a hedge—a way to protect their wealth from losing value.
Take the 1970s—inflation in the U.S. was out of control, and gold prices skyrocketed. Fast forward to 2024-2025, inflation fears are back, and gold demand is surging again.
5. The U.S. Dollar vs. Gold: A Tug-of-War
Gold and the U.S. dollar have an interesting relationship. When the dollar is strong, gold prices tend to fall. When the dollar weakens, gold prices rise. Why? Because gold is priced in U.S. dollars—so if the dollar loses value, it takes more dollars to buy the same amount of gold.
In 2011, the dollar was weak, and gold hit an all-time high. More recently, in early 2025, the dollar showed signs of weakening, and gold prices started climbing again.
6. When the Stock Market Falls, Gold Rises
Imagine you’re an investor, and the stock market is crashing. What do you do? Many people move their money into gold, which pushes up prices. Gold acts as a financial safety net, especially during recessions and stock market downturns.
This happened in 2008 during the financial crisis—stocks crashed, and gold surged. In 2023-2024, economic slowdowns made gold more attractive again.
7. Supply, Demand, and the Jewellery Market
Gold isn’t just for investors—it’s also in high demand for jewellery, especially in countries like India and China, where gold plays a major role in cultural and wedding traditions. When demand for gold jewellery rises, prices tend to go up.
On the flip side, gold mining production also plays a role. If supply is limited due to stricter environmental regulations or mining slowdowns, prices can rise simply because there’s less gold available in the market.
Fundamentals tell us why gold moves, but technical analysis helps us figure out when and how it moves. By looking at price charts, trends, and key indicators, we can get a clearer picture of where gold might be headed next. Let’s break it down
Gold has been on a strong run, recently breaking above the key resistance at $2,930 and nearing the all-time high resistance of $2,956. This move signals growing bullish momentum, but the question now is whether prices can sustain this rally or if a pullback is on the horizon.
- Support at $2,906: This level has acted as a strong intraday floor, with gold bouncing off it. If it holds, buyers may maintain control. The next major support sits at $2,880, which could become a critical level if prices retreat.
- Major Resistance at $2,956 – $2,970: Gold is now testing the next resistance range. $2,956 is particularly significant, as it marks the previous all-time high. A decisive break above this zone could pave the way for a psychological push toward $3,000.
- RSI Indicates Bearish Divergence: Although gold prices are rising, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is making lower highs, signalling potential exhaustion among buyers. This divergence suggests that momentum may be slowing, increasing the likelihood of consolidation or a short-term pullback before the next leg higher.
For gold to maintain its bullish trajectory, it must hold above $2,930 and ultimately break through $2,956 to confirm further upside potential. If successful, $3,000 will be the next major target, as gold continues its upward momentum. However, if $2,906 fails as support,a deeper retracement toward $2,880 or lower could be on the table.
Conclusion:
Gold has always been a safe haven when uncertainty takes over. Whether it’s economic turmoil, inflation, or global instability, people turn to gold to protect their wealth. Time and again, history has proven that when things get rocky, gold tends to shine.
Recently, gold has been on a strong run, pushing toward record highs. The big question now is whether this momentum will continue or if the market is due for a breather.
At its core, gold’s value is driven by fear, confidence, and economic forces. With central banks stocking up, inflation concerns lingering, and market uncertainty still in play, gold’s next move will depend on how these factors unfold. One thing remains certain—when the world is in chaos, gold remains a trusted refuge.
Until then, Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets
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