11-05-2026

Executive Summary

Gold prices climbed toward $4,730 per ounce on Monday, reaching their highest level in nearly three weeks as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East supported safe-haven demand. Market sentiment remained cautious after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s response to a peace proposal, raising concerns over renewed conflict. Continued tensions around the Strait of Hormuz kept crude oil prices elevated, increasing global inflation worries. Meanwhile, expectations for US rate cuts weakened ahead of the upcoming US CPI inflation data. Investors are also closely watching Trump’s China visit, where he is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss Iran, Taiwan, AI, and nuclear issues.

11-05-2026

KEY drivers of gold this week

Gold Market Prospects: Robust Demand Maintains Positive Attitude
The increasing price of energy, a stronger dollar and a steep increase in bond yields created short-term pressure on the value of gold; however, the long-term outlook is very positive for gold because of the high levels of both (institutional and retail) demand, record physical purchases in Asia, and continual purchases from central banks. The demand for gold has also been further advanced by the existence of economic uncertainty coupled with geopolitical unrest.

Hong Kong is Evolving into a Global Centre for Gold & Other Commodities

Given the increasing demand from Asia, Hong Kong wants to become a major global hub for gold/commodity trading. Strong financial services, a well-connected global trading network and increased interest from investors in Asia all support this trend according to government officials. Increasing geopolitical uncertainty has created pressure on international investors to diversify their portfolios; therefore, they are investing more in both Hong Kong and Asia

Summary of the China Gold Market Q1 2026:
There were safety inspections and some smelters have been temporarily shut down, and this contributed to a decline in China gold production in the first quarter of 2026. Although the demand for jewelry has reduced due to higher costs, the demand for gold investment is still very strong; especially when it comes to gold bar purchase or coin purchase.

Key Point: Investors are still showing a strong amount of investment demand in China, and they are moving away from jewellery use of gold and deciding to purchase gold in the form of bars or coins instead.

11-05-2026

Global Gold ETF Flows – April 2026

In April, strong inflows across major regions were supported by geopolitical tensions, inflation fears, and safe-haven demand, leading to a global return to gold ETFs. India’s inflow for April marks the 11th month of continuous inflows.

Key Point:

Investors are continuing to use gold as a safe-haven investment in spite of the ongoing volatility of the financial markets, threat of inflation, and unpredictable geopolitical situations; as demonstrated by the large inflow of Gold ETF into both Asia and Europe.

11-05-2026

Global Central Bank Activities

In April 2026, central banks continued to strengthen their gold reserves, with Poland purchasing 13 tonnes, China adding 8 tonnes, and the Czech National Bank increasing its holdings by 2 tonnes, reflecting sustained institutional confidence in gold.

Meanwhile, China’s gold market showed mixed trends in Q1 2026, according to the China Gold Association. Total gold production declined 3.3% year-on-year to 136.23 tonnes, with domestic mine output falling a sharper 7.1% to 81.07 tonnes. Despite weaker production, overall gold consumption rose 4.4% to 303.29 tonnes, driven primarily by strong investment demand. Demand for gold bars and coins surged 46.4% to 202.06 tonnes, indicating heightened investor interest, while jewelry consumption dropped significantly by 37.1% to 84.62 tonnes, suggesting a shift in consumer preference from adornment to investment

11-05-2026

Gold Price Drops Amid Heightened Inflation Fears Due to US-Iran Tensions

Rising US-Iranian tensions have increased fears of inflation and bolstered expectations for higher interest rates, as such, gold traded at approximately $4,690 per ounce. Meanwhile, ongoing uncertainty related to the Strait of Hormuz continues to cloud investor confidence, particularly after an Iranian rejection of US requests and President Donald Trump’s rejection of Iran`s latest peace initiative.

Although geopolitical concerns continue to weigh on sentiment, positive US Nonfarm Payrolls numbers (jobs added) supported both the US Dollar and Treasuries (US Government Bonds) while simultaneously pressuring non-yield producing assets (such as gold).

Trump called for another inspection of Fort Knox`s gold reserves

President Donald Trump recently made a visit to Fort Knox to examine the sacred treasure trove of gold located there, stating “Is there really gold in Fort Knox?”

With Fort Knox having 147.3 million troy ounces of gold in its reserves, gold is one of the most valuable assets of the United States Banking System. This statement will give the market more reason to discuss confidence in the market, the transparency of bank reserves and the worldwide appeal of gold.

Modi Concerned About Loss of Foreign Currency from Gold Imports

Narendra Modi has called for all citizens in India to stop buying "non-essential" items made from gold.

He cites the following reasons why Modi called for you to stop:

- High prices for crude oil;

- Strained supply chain from tensions in the Middle East;

- Forex reserves are being depleted.

PM Modi has recommended to take steps to save money, forgo unnecessary international travel, and go without foreign made goods. Market analysts` view is that the government focus its efforts more on controlling foreign import payments; thus providing for an adequate amount of foreign currency reserves.

11-05-2026

US Inflation (CPI) in Focus: Key Market Impact Ahead

The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an essential global economic data point to be observed collectively. In addition, the forthcoming US CPI prints have the potential to influence market sentiment (risk) and forecasting of future interest rate levels significantly. The headline CPI is forecasted at 3.7% YoY (previously reported as 3.3% YoY). An increase in CPI that is above expectations could lead the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate easing and strengthen the US Dollar (potentially leading to a downwards move in the equities markets). While rising inflation has the potential to support gold as an inflation hedge, increasing interest rate expectations may limit any upside to gold prices (as rising interest rates could lead to higher bond rates). Therefore, the publication of higher than expected CPI may increase the likelihood of short-term volatilities in the gold market (and the equity markets). Overall, this will be an important element in determining future gold and US Market Price activity.

Gold in the Market and Chair Nomination Vote of the Fed

The market will have a keen eye on the upcoming Fed Chair nomination vote and how it might shape US monetary policy in the future. The dollar index, US bond yields, and stocks in the US will react quickly to any signs that the nominee has a hawkish or dovish outlook on monetary policy. If a nominee is believed to be dovish, it could potentially benefit risk assets, while an apparent inclination by the nominee towards tightening policy could create selling pressure on equities and raise bond yields. Gold is usually very volatile during periods of significant uncertainty regarding management and the direction of monetary policy; therefore, a tighter monetary policy could limit gold`s upside potential due to potentially higher real interest rates, but a dovish signal could potentially support gold prices.

11-05-2026

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

COMEX Gold is holding a positive structure with strong support near $4,480, while resistance remains in the $4,770–$4,900 zone. The market is currently moving in a consolidation phase, but steady buying interest at lower levels continues to support prices. As long as gold remains above $4,480, the broader trend is expected to stay bullish. Traders can consider creating buying positions in two phases on a breakout above $4,770 and near the $4,600 area  with a stop loss below $4,480. On the upside, prices may extend towards $4,900+ levels in the near term.

MCX Gold continues to trade in a range-bound pattern with underlying strength. Key support is placed at 1,52,000 - 1,48,000, while resistance is seen around 1,54,500–1,55,500. Traders may look for fresh buying opportunities above 1,54,500, where prices could move towards ₹1,55,500 and later 1,57,000+. Low-risk traders can also consider accumulating near the 1,52,000–1,51,500 zone, keeping a stop loss below 1,48,000.

11-05-2026

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