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Big Week: Japan Elections, BOJ Rates, UK Budget, US Economic Data


Big Week: Japan Elections, BOJ Rates, UK Budget, US Economic Data

This week brings significant event risks, highlighted by Japan’s election aftermath, the Bank of Japan policy meeting, the U.S. October jobs report, and the UK budget, all in the lead-up to the Nov. 5 U.S. election.

Important Data and Events for this week – Japan Elections, BOJ Rates and more

Japan

The BOJ monetary policy board meets on Wednesday-Thursday and is widely expected to hold its policy rate at 0.25% as Governor Kazuo Ueda continues to signal a patient approach to further tightening.

Japan has a busy week for data, with unemployment, consumer confidence, industrial production and retail sales adding insights on the economy.

US

The U.S. Federal Reserve enters the blackout period ahead of its Nov 6-7 policy meeting, but investors will have plenty of data to sift through.

The highlights include consumer confidence, ADP jobs on Wednesday (foreseen at 101k from previous 143k), and advance Q3 GDP on the same time (forecast 3% almost unchanged).

On Thursday,  the September PCE price index will be in focus with a forecast of 0.3% slightly up from previous 0.1%, while Weekly jobless claims is expected to attract attention with a forecast of 231k from the previous 227k.

 Further, JOLTS job openings, ISM manufacturing PMI, final S&P Global manufacturing PMI, followed by the often volatile monthly jobs data on Friday.

U.S. payrolls release among the most pertinent on Friday. The forecast is 111k increase in non-farm payrolls compared to 254k and steady unemployment rate of 4.1% in October, which could be the decisive for the US dollar.

UK

The UK faces a potentially pivotal week for markets, with the first budget from the new Labour government on Wednesday likely to be key for yields, investors and sterling. There is no first-tier UK data due.

Eurozone

German CPI data on Wednesday is expected to draw attention from Euro traders, with a forecasted 0.2% rise from the previous flat 0%, potentially pressuring the currency. The Eurozone calendar also includes the core CPI flash estimate on Thursday, anticipated at 2.6%, down from 2.7%, which could weigh on the Euro.

China

China’s official October PMIs are due on Thursday. The data is foreseen at 50 from the previous 49.80 and the Caixin manufacturing PMI on Friday, with a forecast of 49.7 from the previous 49.30.

Markets will also be on watch for any hints of fiscal stimulus plans ahead of the Nov 4-8 meeting of China’s top legislative body.

Australia’s main release is September and Q3 CPI data on Wednesday, which will reveal whether inflation pressures are finally abating. Retail sales, housing finance and PPI data are also due. New Zealand has Q3 employment and the ANZ business survey.

In Canada, August GDP data and the October S&P Global manufacturing PMI are due, while Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem participates in a fireside chat.

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets

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