31-12-2025

Oil markets are closely tracking Venezuela as crude oil shipments continue even after strong action from the United States. The U.S. has imposed a strict maritime blockade to limit Venezuela’s oil exports, as oil is the country’s main source of revenue. The goal is to increase economic pressure on the Venezuelan government by restricting its ability to sell crude in global markets.

The effect of the blockade can already be seen. The U.S. has taken control of two oil tankers, and security checks in the Caribbean have increased. Because of this risk, many shipping companies are no longer willing to go to Venezuelan ports. Due to fewer ships, Venezuela’s oil exports have dropped sharply and are now almost 50% lower than in November. This shows that the blockade is having a strong impact.

Even then, exports have not stopped fully. A few oil tankers are still reaching Venezuela. These tankers are mostly connected to long-term deals with China. Venezuela owes China a large amount of money, so instead of paying cash, it is sending oil. Two tankers linked to these deals are currently moving toward Venezuelan ports, but it is not yet clear if special approvals will be needed.

Another major issue is storage. Since exports are slow, Venezuela is storing oil on ships offshore instead of on land. Around two dozen tankers are currently waiting near the José oil terminal, holding nearly 16 million barrels of crude. This is a sharp rise from 11 million barrels in midDecember, indicating growing export delays.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said that crude oil stocks increased by 400,000 barrels, reaching 424.8 million barrels in the last week of December, even though fuel demand was high during Christmas. This means oil supply is still strong. Also, the Baker Hughes report showed more oil rigs are active in the U.S., which points to higher future production. Because of this, oil prices are facing downward pressure.

Operational challenges have also increased. A recent cyberattack on PDVSA disrupted internal systems, slowing documentation and cargo approvals, which further delayed tanker movements.

At the same time, traders are watching U.S. crude oil inventory data today. The previous data showed a build of 0.4 million barrels, and the market expects a build of 0.5 million barrels. If inventories increase again, it means supply is still comfortable, which can limit oil price gains.

At present, the only crude exports officially allowed are shipments by Chevron under special U.S. authorization. Overall, Venezuelan supply tightness adds risk premium, but higher inventories may keep prices range-bound.

This news may affect oil prices gradually over time as supply conditions change. For now, crude oil prices are moving in a range as the market balances supply pressure with enough global availability.