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Introduction
Global markets are watching closely as Russia considers returning to the US dollar settlement
system under a possible economic deal with the United States. In recent years, Western sanctions
pushed Russia away from the dollar and restricted its access to global payment systems. To keep
trade running, Russia shifted to other currencies such as the Chinese yuan, the Indian rupee, and
its own ruble.
According to unofficial reports, there are indications that Russia may consider returning to US
dollar–based trade settlements in the future as part of a possible economic understanding with the
United States. This information has not been officially confirmed by either side and should be
viewed as tentative. However, if such a move were to take place, it could mark an important shift
in global trade. This is especially relevant for commodity markets, as most international trade in
oil, gas, and metals is still conducted in US dollars, meaning any return toward dollar settlement
could influence prices, trade flows, and overall market stability
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Why Russia Is Considering This Move
After Western sanctions linked to the Ukraine conflict, Russia reduced its use of the US dollar and
started trading in other currencies like the yuan and rupee. While this helped continue trade, it also
made payments slower and increased currency risks. Many global buyers still prefer to trade in
dollars, especially in commodities. Using the US dollar again is mainly a practical decision, not a
political one. It can help Russia access more buyers, attract foreign investment, make trade
smoother, and support economic stability if political tensions ease.
Key Areas Under Discussion Between the US and Russia
The proposed economic partnership between the United States and Russia may allow trade to be
settled again in US dollars. If the deal is finalized, it could also include cooperation in key areas
such as oil and gas production, offshore energy projects, and critical minerals like nickel and
palladium. There may be joint investments in energy infrastructure as well. In addition, the deal
could open the door for US investment in Russia’s natural resources and give Russia easier access
to global financial systems. In simple terms, both countries may focus more on energy security
and business opportunities rather than political differences, with the main aim of improving trade
stability and restoring normal financial relations.
Benefits for Russia and the US
This deal can benefit both Russia and the United States in practical ways. For Russia, using the
US dollar again can make trade payments faster and smoother, as the dollar is widely accepted
across global markets. It also reduces currency-related risks that come with using multiple local
currencies and helps Russia get more transparent and competitive pricing for its oil and metals
exports. For the United States, the deal is attractive because Russia has large natural resources
such as crude oil, natural gas, and key minerals, which can support energy security and supply
needs. The deal also strengthens the global role of the US dollar and increases US influence over
international commodity trade. Overall, both countries benefit as trade becomes smoother, more
reliable, and easier to manage.
Impact on De-Dollarization Efforts
Russia and other BRICS countries have been trying to reduce dependence on the US dollar. If
Russia returns to dollar trade, it could slow down the de-dollarization movement. It does not mean
de-dollarization will completely stop, but it shows that replacing the dollar in global trade is not
easy.
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BRICS Central Banks Boost Gold Reserves
This chart shows that BRICS countries have significantly increased their gold reserves, especially
after 2022–23, following the Ukraine conflict. The sharp rise reflects how central banks reacted to
sanctions and restrictions on dollar-based financial systems. By holding more gold, countries like
China, Russia, and India aim to reduce reliance on the US dollar and protect their reserves from
geopolitical risks. Gold is seen as a safe asset that is not controlled by any single country, making
it a key tool in supporting de-dollarization efforts.
Russia has moved almost 90% of its trade with China and India into local currencies instead of the
US dollar. Across BRICS, trade settled in national currencies has risen to around 60–67%. While
this share has stabilized after some fluctuations, it is still much higher than before the Ukraine
conflict, This shows how strongly BRICS countries have pushed to reduce their dependence on
the US dollar in recent years.
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Impact on the Commodity Market
If Russia supports dollarization through this deal, it will strengthen the US dollar in global markets.
A stronger dollar usually puts pressure on commodity prices, because commodities are priced in
dollars and become costlier for buyers using other currencies. As a result, prices of oil, gold, silver,
and industrial metals may face downside pressure. In addition, if this deal goes ahead, it could
reduce geopolitical tensions between major global powers. Lower geopolitical risk generally
removes the risk premium built into commodity prices, especially in energy and precious metals.
Together, a stronger dollar and easing geopolitical concerns can limit upside and create pressure
on commodity prices in the near term.
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Conclusion
If this deal moves forward, Russia returning to US dollar trade would mark an important shift in
global markets. It shows that despite efforts to reduce dollar dependence, the US dollar still plays
a central role in global trade, especially in commodities. For commodity markets, this could
mean a stronger dollar, easing geopolitical tensions, and some pressure on prices in the short
term. Overall, the development highlights a move toward practicality over politics, where
stability, smooth trade, and economic benefits take priority in shaping future global trade
dynamics.
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