23-02-2026

Gold rose nearly 1% to around $5,150 per ounce, marking its highest level in more than three weeks as investors shifted strongly toward safe-haven assets. The rally picked up pace after U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to increase global tariffs from 10% to 15%, following a Supreme Court decision that rejected his “reciprocal tariffs.” This move created fresh uncertainty around global trade, pressured the U.S. dollar, and made gold more attractive as a protection against policy instability.

At the same time, rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran over stalled nuclear talks added to geopolitical concerns. Although mixed U.S. economic data slightly lowered expectations for immediate Federal Reserve rate cuts, gold’s strength was mainly driven by global uncertainty rather than monetary policy. Overall, ongoing geopolitical and trade risks continue to support prices, keeping the broader trend biased to the upside.

23-02-2026

Slower GDP Growth and Persistent Inflation Shape Rate Expectations:

The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.4% in Q4 2025, sharply lower than 4.4% in Q3 and below market expectations of 3%, showing that growth has slowed significantly. Consumer spending eased to 2.4%, with a slight decline in goods purchases, while services spending remained stable. Exports fell after a strong previous quarter, and government spending dropped sharply due to the government shutdown, which pulled overall growth lower. On a positive note, business investment improved, especially in intellectual property and equipment. For the full year 2025, the economy grew 2.2%, slower than 2.8% in 2024.

At the same time, PCE inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, indicating that price pressures are still present. This mix of slower growth and sticky inflation created uncertainty around interest rate cuts. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a June rate cut fell from 50.2% to 45.6%, which briefly supported the U.S. dollar and limited gold’s upside, as lower chances of rate cuts typically strengthen the dollar and create short-term pressure on gold prices

23-02-2026

Key Drivers:
Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Triggers Dollar Weakness, Supports Gold:

The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to block President Donald Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose broad global tariffs created fresh uncertainty around U.S. trade policy. This development weakened the U.S. dollar as markets reacted to potential policy instability. Since gold is priced in dollars, a weaker dollar makes it cheaper for international buyers, increasing demand and pushing prices higher. As a result, gold gained momentum, supported by the typical inverse relationship between the dollar and gold.

U.S.–Iran Nuclear Tensions Drive Safe-Haven Demand: Rising tensions between the United States and Iran over stalled nuclear talks were the main reason behind gold’s rally this week. Reports of additional U.S. warship deployments, possible military action warnings, and ongoing diplomatic deadlock increased geopolitical risks and fears of instability in the Middle East. During such uncertain times, investors typically move away from risky assets like equities and shift toward safe-haven assets such as gold. Added concerns about energy supply and oil price volatility further supported this risk-off sentiment, making gold the primary beneficiary of fear-driven buying throughout the week

COT Report Signals Strong Bullish Positioning in Gold The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows total open interest in gold at 723,906 contracts, reflecting steady market participation. Hedge funds (Money Managers) remain strongly bullish, holding 120,314 long contracts against 24,257 short positions, resulting in a solid net long position of 96,057 contracts. Notably, they added fresh long positions during the week, indicating continued confidence in gold’s upside potential.

Commercial hedgers, such as producers and merchants, remain moderately net short typical for normal hedging activity with 55,706 short contracts versus 33,201 longs. Importantly, there is no sharp rise in new short hedging, suggesting limited downside pressure. Swap dealers slightly reduced their short exposure, and small traders also maintain net long positions. Overall, the positioning structure supports an upside bias, although elevated speculative longs could lead to higher volatility if prices see a sudden correction.

23-02-2026

United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment

The Index of Consumer Expectations measures how Americans feel about their future finances and the overall economy. It focuses on three key areas: personal financial outlook, short-term economic expectations, and long-term economic prospects. The survey includes around 50 questions each month and is based on at least 500 phone interviews, designed to represent most U.S. households.

In February 2026, U.S. consumer confidence rose slightly to 56.60 from 56.40 in January. Historically, the index has averaged 84.65 since 1952, with a high of 111.40 in 2000 and a low of 50.00 in 2022. It is expected to ease to around 54.00 by the end of the current quarter and gradually improve toward 58.00 by 2027, according to projections.

23-02-2026

EU Raises Concerns Over U.S. Tariff Policy:

The European Union is reconsidering approval of its trade agreement with the United States due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policy. After the U.S. Supreme Court blocked key tariff powers previously used by the American administration, European lawmakers expressed concerns about the legal clarity and stability of future U.S. trade actions. Bernd Lange, head of the European Parliament’s trade committee, described the situation as “customs chaos,” especially after President Donald Trump announced a new 15% global tariff under a different legal basis.

Although both sides had earlier agreed on structured tariff arrangements under the Turnberry trade framework, the EU now wants clearer guarantees before moving forward. The bloc fears that unpredictable U.S. policy decisions could weaken the agreement and disrupt trade stability. This uncertainty is increasing trade tensions and could impact supply chains, business confidence, and overall market sentiment between the U.S. and Europe.

23-02-2026

EU Remains the Largest Supplier of U.S. Imports:

According to recent U.S. Census Bureau data (January–May 2025), the European Union is the biggest source of goods imported into the United States, with total imports worth $303 billion, accounting for 20.2% of overall U.S. imports. This makes the EU America’s most important trade partner on the import side. Mexico ranks second with $220 billion (14.6%), followed by Canada at $169 billion (11.2%), while China stands at $149 billion (9.9%). Other major suppliers include Switzerland, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and India, showing that U.S. supply chains are now more diversified than in previous years.

This is important because the EU’s 20% share highlights how economically significant U.S.–EU trade relations are. Any tariff hikes or trade disputes between the two could directly raise import costs, disrupt supply chains, and potentially increase inflation. Given the scale of trade exposure, uncertainty in transatlantic trade policy can also affect financial markets and global investor confidence.

23-02-2026

Germany and Switzerland Call for Clarity in U.S. Trade Policy:

Germany and Switzerland have both responded to the recent developments in U.S. trade policy. A German government spokesperson stated that Germany expects the United States to follow the Supreme Court’s decision with clear and consistent policies, emphasizing the need for legal clarity and stability in trade matters.

Meanwhile, the Swiss government said it is closely considering current global economic and political conditions while continuing trade negotiations with the United States. Switzerland added that it is proceeding carefully in light of changing economic and geopolitical dynamics, aiming to reach a balanced and mutually beneficial trade agreement with the U.S. Both responses highlight the growing importance of transparency and stability in U.S. trade policy amid global uncertainty.

23-02-2026

Technical Analysis:

In COMEX Gold, support levels are placed at $5060--$4960--$4840, while resistance stands at $5220. Buying can be considered near $5060 on dips, with a stop-loss below $4840. On the upside, targets of $5200 and then $5380 can be expected on a recovery.

In MCX Gold, support levels are at 157,000--155,500--154,000, with resistance at ₹161,000. Buying is recommended on dips between 157,000--155,000, keeping a stop-loss below ₹154,000. Upside targets are around 160,000, and if prices sustain above 161,000, further levels of 163,500+ may be seen.

23-02-2026

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